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"Data from the U.S. Postal Service and Census Bureau shows how the pandemic drove urban professionals who were able to work remotely — disproportionately Democrats — out of coastal, progressive cities to seek more space or recreational amenities in the nation’s suburbs and Sun Belt. This moved liberals out of electoral districts where Democrats reliably won by large margins into many purple regions that had the potential to swing with just small changes to the map."
Yes, please, we need every tiny bit of help to win this one.
Admittedly, that specific change may have been negated or reversed thanks to the return to work mandates a lot of employers are now imposing.
Ugh, this isn't a jab at you but it pisses me off when old money employers call it "return to work" ... Like wtf do they think we've been doing this whole time?
It's probably one of the reasons they're so Hell-bent on it, come to think of it.
It me
Why use lot word when few word do trick?
When I President, they see.
Big same
the people in that demographic seek fiscal policies that protect their wealth and they're not voting liberal to get it.
Not always, especially if they lived in liberal area. I know a lot of well off people that don't mind being taxed and want other less fortunate than them to get help from the government. That or they view Trump as they threat to democracy that he is.
Interesting! Thanks for the link!
COVID has already had an impact on the election. The census date was April 1, 2020. In March of 2020, COVID had started to severely hit NYC but was only ramping up in other areas. NY ended up losing a congressional seat in that census, by only 89 people. There's no doubt that COVID's timing screwed up NY State's congressional map, and contributed to the slim Republican majority in this year's congress.
Yikes. We're all thinking about how covid disproportionately affects the elderly, but it also disproportionately affects people who live in denser population centers.
I don't like talking about pandemics in terms of which political party they help, but I guess the dems may have been hit harder in the end...
I'm too lazy to look this up, but I believe death rates were higher out of cities vs in cities. Half the reason hospitals were packed in cities is because rural people went where the ventilators were. Everywhere had all the covid waves, they just hit cities first.
Elderly tend to be more R, and D folks were more likely to mask and vaccinate. But elderly vaccinated pretty well across the board and the divide was bigger in the young. Lots of factors, but my money is on D making out slightly better as a broad cohort. Tragic all around though.
Ok I did some searching and excess mortality points to higher rural impact, but official cause of death data is mixed (too lazy to link though).
Oh yeah, everything you wrote about excess mortality in rural vs urban areas is 100% correct. But the Census aimed to enumerate everyone living in the country as of April 1, 2020, and it hit NYC really hard right at the start. So the fact that the rest of the country eventually caught up with the mortality rate didn't help NY State in the Census at all.
Not enough for comfort.
It could, I mean, we don't know the politics of the covid dead, but look at the numbers:
Pennsylvania:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania
Trump - 2,970,733
Clinton - 2,926,441
Difference: 44,292
Covid deaths: 51,344
Source: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/pennsylvania/
Michigan:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan
Trump - 2,279,543
Clinton - 2,268,839
Difference: 10,704
Covid deaths: 44,728
Source: https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/stats
Wisconsin:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin
Trump - 1,405,284
Clinton - 1,382,536
Difference: 22,748
Covid deaths: 16,723
Source: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/wisconsin/
The vote difference in Georgia was less than 12K votes..
I'm betting more that the excess mortality of republicans was easily 12k more than democrat excess deaths during Covid... The more hardline/republiQan/Nuts, the more anti-mask and prone to risky behavior during the pandemic, the more excess deaths.. especially at the beginning with the OG (die-in-the-intensive-care-hooked-up-to-a-vebtilator) variant.
I think the pandemic will definitely have an effect. If I recall correctly, Fox News changed gears and started promoting the vaccine after realizing that their base was dying at a faster rate than Democrats.
It could have been a co tributing factor to Georgia voting for Biden in 2020 and could be a reason why Biden was closer to winning TX than Hillary was.
Florida is hard to say, because a lot of retirees move there. So while the Republicans there may have been hit harder during covid, those may have been replaced with more Republicans moving in to retire in the sun.
That depends. How many democrats died during Covid?