This is the continuation of settled policy on Taiwan. It is not an internationally recognised nation, it is an autonomous territory within China. Declaring support for independence would be escalatory language from the US and could harm efforts within Taiwan to move in that direction domestically. It would allow the CCP to further push the narrative of foreign interference while lessening the focus on the actual desires of the Taiwanese voters. It's a very complicated situation compared to something like Ukraine.
this post was submitted on 13 Jan 2024
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Placating the Chinese is a failed strategy. It only gives them time to build up a stronger military for the upcoming conflict. It is worth calling their bluff on Taiwan and recognizing it.
Hopefully, tensions don't escalate to anything other than skirmishes, but the longer the US waits, the more casualties it will incur from false hope this will get resolved diplomatically.
The US has already decided the opposite. The big push for chip manufacture in the US is about making it easier to cut ties with Taiwan down the road.
Agree that chip manufacturing is a component of the decision making and contingency planning. I disagree with drawing too much of a conclusion about US intent from it. If things work out, the US will happily continue importing chips even as our own capacity grows.
Part of the push for US Chip manufacturing is finally recognizing it as a national defense issue. The US isn't the only country doing this (setting up their own). Modern militaries are crippled without chips. So it's not necessarily a definitive line to the Taiwan policy.
While, I don't disagree that it's a factor, but I would debate the inference and weight of the factor.
making it easier to cut ties with Taiwan down the road.
It's a smart strategic decision to not be caught without chips in the event of a war between Taiwan and China.
Yes, which amounts to the same thing. Such a war will only happen if the China believes the US won't defend Taiwan.
It will work fine due to circumstances. China is facing a demographic cliff due to the effects of the One Child Policy. They have to start a war in the next few years or they won't be able to for at least another generation. Probably more like two or three. They have too many old people and not enough young people to take care of them.
With their recent economic downturn (relatively speaking; their GDP is still growing >5%/year) the window may already be closed.
They can continue to be the world's factory, or they can make a big military to take Taiwan and keep the US Navy out of their sphere of influence. They can't do both.
Everything Biden said was probably negotiated by entire teams from America’s State Department and the Beijing and Taipei foreign ministries. There would be equivalent language Xi and Taiwan’s leadership agreed to.
Sometimes, with diplomatic situations, leadership says what was negotiated and the wording shouldn’t change. Like, we officially agree with the “one-China” policy but are intentionally vague about whether the CCP would be the “one China” leadership.
It’s like when they have read-outs of what leaders discussed and it’s like, “Biden agreed with Xi to improve trade in important natural resources.” They both probably said “Fuck you and the horse you rode in on. You can buy some fucking cobalt or natural gas but don’t test me.” And a state department employee negotiated the official read out.
I had a friend who worked for the military in Taiwan diplomacy for a while and there's a whole rigid structure around how we talk about it internationally that they hammer into diplomatic and military officials.
One of the things he told me is that the people of Taiwan have to be referred to as "the Taiwans" and not "the Taiwanese," because the -ese ending might give the impression that we're alleging a separate national identity, which conflicts with the official position we've maintained for decades with China.
So yeah, I don't think this statement is worth reading into as anything other than a continuation of our long-standing position on Taiwan. Although admittedly, that position leads to some silly-sounding contortions of language.
"The Taiwans" thing is unbelievable, but googling confirms it is true. I'm not sure why anyone would think it implies a separate national identity. Nobody would think that in any other circumstance. The diplomacy around Taiwan can be really absurd.
What the fuck is it so hard for a politician to say " Our relationship and diplomacy with china is too Precarious for us to openly support taiwan. While we value democracy internationally, we are not willing Take a stance on that issue for that reason."
At least it would be honest everyone knows that's the deal.
This is like when your spouse asks you “do I look fat?” Then you respond with:
"My relationship with your appearance is too precarious for me to openly support commenting on it. While I value a healthy BMI, I am not willing to take a stance on that issue for that reason.”
Somehow, I imagine that would still get you in trouble.
It would be like someone saying they support American Samoa independence. You'd basically be telling the US that its territories should be independent nations, which the UN recognizes as "a dick move".
What happens if Taiwan attempts full autonomy or China attempts full control might be a different story, though. We'll have to see how trade is going at that point.
Because everyone knows what they mean and changes in wording are negotiated and set off diplomatic tizzies. I studied international relations and every word is negotiated by ambassadors or state department employees and presidents just say them.
Because you only get one message. There's no way to speak only to one group of people.
Because it’s completely fucking obvious and no president need say it.
...Reports were unclear on whether President Biden's fingers were crossed at the time or if knowing winks were exchanged with the crowd. Initial statements also do not include a "no takebacks" clause.
I also do not support Taiwan's independence. I assume he means West Taiwan. It should certainly be re-unified with the democratic republic of Taiwan.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
China previously warned that the election was critical, as voters could be choosing between war and peace.
Biden’s stance reinforces the One China policy in recognizing Beijing’s claims that Taiwan is historically part of the mainland.
After Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Nov., he said he “made clear” China should not interfere in Taiwan’s election.
The U.S. announced Wednesday that it would be sending an unofficial delegation to Taiwan after the island conducted its election.
It’s unknown how China will react to the new delegation and Lai’s win, but the country previously told the U.S. that it will “not make any concession or compromise” on Taiwan.
Lai, who said he is open to talks with China, posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter thanking voters for electing him and pledged to uphold peace in the Taiwan Straight and to be “a force of good in the international community.”
The original article contains 367 words, the summary contains 153 words. Saved 58%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
USA policy for decades, at least publicly, has been to neither support nor oppose a particular final status for Taiwan, but to support such status being worked out through peaceful non-coercive negotiations between the two sides.
After Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Nov., he said he “made clear” China should not interfere in Taiwan’s election. He said the U.S. maintains the One China agreement and he does not have plans to change it.
Sure yeah. One China. One Taiwan. It’s all good.
Not the Onion?
"We arent ready to sever ties with China, so we will tow the line and kowtow for the meantime"
Or he backs a Taiwan taking back control of mainland China.
I think supporting the One China policy makes pretty clear where he stands and it ain't with Taiwan.
Taiwan is politically complicated. Taiwan has to play a balancing act where China believes that will Taiwan will willingly rejoin the mainland, while still acting as 'the true China'. If mainland China believes that it will eventually be resolved diplomatically, they won't resort to violence. This is complicated with the election of the anti-Chinese president in Taiwan who will push harder against China, upsetting that balance. My guess is that his statements are done to ease Chinese concerns, and/or signal to Taiwan to not antagonize the Chinese.
The US officially supports One China, the US doesn't have an official statement on who we want to be in charge of that One China. The whole thing is a wink-and-nod sort of operation. Sure, we support the reintegration of Chinese culture and territory. Do we support that existing under Jinping? Ehhhhhhhh. America would be just as happy, or happier, were the Taiwanese government to gain control of greater China. But since we aren't trying to start a shooting war with greater China, we keep that part quiet.
The Chinese government knows damn well we don't like them much. We also know they don't like us much. But we're economically interdependent and neither of us wants to rattle sabers at the other until our hand is forced. That's why the situation is full of doublespeak and missing information. It's intentionally vague so that a non-inflammatory statement can be given without backing oneself into a corner.