this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.

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[–] Zippy@lemmy.world 121 points 9 months ago (29 children)

Don't take it for granted. Hilary lost because of this. Get out and vote.

[–] YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world 54 points 9 months ago (3 children)

Hillary lost because she couldn't read the writing on the wall and told everyone she deserved to win because it was her time. She was the worst person on the planet to go against Trump. The GOP spent 30 years demonizing her and she played right into their hands. Biden should have been the candidate then but that is hindsight.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 22 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Biden had just lost his son and didn't want the job. He later said he regretted that decision.

[–] dhork@lemmy.world 24 points 9 months ago (2 children)

It's not just that, also remember that Biden had made a minor career out of losing the Democratic Presidential Nomination before Obama asked him to be VP. Much of the reason for that is that he had the tendency to say dumb shit. Remember all those "Gaffes"?

I don't think Biden could have ever become President before Trump, because we used to have higher standards for what was "Presidential". But once Trump became President, now all the dumb gaffes Biden makes are no longer a liability.

I admit I have been more impressed with Biden then I thought I would. I think a big issue is he is a much better President than he is a candidate for President.

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[–] YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago

The entire nation regrets that decision.

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 21 points 9 months ago (1 children)

She was the worst person on the planet to go against Trump.

She absolutely was. And with the pied piper strategy, she basically said who she thought the worst candidate was in the opposition's field, then lost to him.

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[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 6 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (2 children)

Moderates are really really motivated to only be just slightly better than Republicans.

They want to be as corporation/billionaire friendly as possible, so they get as many donations as possible.

It's why Hillary spent money, time, and effort boosting trump and Ben Carson in 2016. There wasn't much difference between her and Jeb Bush, so she didn't think she had a chance at beating him.

The obvious risk was Hillary was/is a horrible candidate and might not have even been able to win against them, which she wasn't.

It's like if the pitcher in a MLB game bet for his team to win, but by less than the spread. He still wants to win, but he keeps throwing softballs over the plate if he starts to win too much.

But that's just a game, this is literally playing with people's lives.

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[–] 7355608@lemmy.world 34 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (2 children)

I don't have to like Joe or his policies to know that voting for him is the better choice. It sucks to have vote for the lesser evil, but right now the gap between the lesser and greater evils is so large that it makes the decision simple.

Joe will be ~~a lame duck in 28'~~ ineligible to run in 28'which will hopefully give us a chance to force the issue on not wantting to vote for the lesser evil then. However right now the greater evil is the issue, if we want to have a system to reform in 28' the choice on who to vote for now isn't a choice at all.

[–] SquirtleHermit@lemmy.world 6 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when my best choice is to vote for someone who I know will not adequately address the multitude of extremely time sensitive issues facing our planet and country.

Like yeah, Trump will be worse, and the system is such that you literally have to vote blue if you want to mitigate the damage. But climate change isn't waiting for us to "fix the system", Americans dying of inadequate health care don't have time to wait, the rich aren't going to stop widening the wealth gap just because. And for all of this, my vote goes to an administration that will only employ soft tactics to stop genocide...

But hey, at least it could be worse right...

[–] madcaesar@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Lesser evil might have been a thing 20 years ago, calling Biden lesser evil is just ignorant.

He's going up against a man that does not believe in democracy or the peaceful transition of power.

It's like looking at broccoli and dog vomit and saying I'll eat broccoli it's the lesser of two evils.... 🤷‍♂️

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[–] TwoGems@lemmy.world 18 points 9 months ago (3 children)

Are people this dumb? Would they really consider Trump for another presidency, let alone another insane Republican candidate?

[–] thisisnotgoingwell@programming.dev 6 points 9 months ago (3 children)

Imagine if the DNC gave democrats a worthy candidate. Then we wouldn't have to strongarm democrats to vote for democratic candidates.

[–] andyburke@fedia.io 6 points 9 months ago

Who?

The problem is sort of chicken and egg: if there were an obvious democratic alternative the party could agree on, Biden would be out. There is no such person, so we get stuck with what we have right now.

Hard to fault the party for not wanting to bruise their most likely candidate in a tough primary, either.

This sucks, but it's not the Democrats' fault: it's our first past the post voting system.

[–] Kusimulkku@lemm.ee 4 points 9 months ago (19 children)
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[–] dhork@lemmy.world 14 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (4 children)

If Trump is still the nominee, he will likely have been convicted in at least one of those 4 criminal cases, but still holds sway in the party to win anyway and will double-dog-dare Georgia to throw him in jail. In that case, I don't think enough people would willingly vote for a felon (even a Republican one) to give him a chance.

This leaves Biden a single thing he absolutely needs to win the election: a pulse. I think the only person keeping America from becoming a fascist dictatorship is not Biden, it's his cardiologist. That doctor needs to keep Biden's heart ticking until Jan 21 2025.

[–] chakan2@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago (2 children)

I don’t think enough people would willingly vote for a felon

It does lay the groundwork for a civil war. You know some redneck dumb fucks are going to try to break him out of jail, and then it's on. It's clear that Trump's base is voting Trump no matter what.

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[–] ininewcrow@lemmy.ca 11 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I think the most important metric for Biden and the Democrats in the upcoming us election is a blood pulse.

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[–] n0m4n@lemmy.world 10 points 9 months ago (10 children)

Why does anyone presume that his opponent will be the orange guy? If he hasn't keeled over with hamberders and buckets of KFC, he still has 91 felonies hanging over his head. He likely will be imprisoned, or disqualified by then.

[–] reverendsteveii@lemm.ee 16 points 9 months ago (5 children)

Why does anyone presume that his opponent will be the orange guy?

Because he's winning the primaries now by some distance, it's not illegal for him to run from prison and at least one state court has already decided that he did engage in an insurrection but that that doesn't disqualify him either.

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[–] PhlubbaDubba@lemm.ee 8 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Well for starters a lot of his full trial dates are being set for after the primaries

They're basically trying to take what comy did to Clinton and dial it to 11

[–] n0m4n@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Speaking of which, the Russian emails, had presumably classified information. The rules over classified documents are to never comment about them, because any information released is another clue about what is contained in actual classified documents. This left Clinton in a limbo of not being able to defend herself, while being smeared. Comey, believed the emails, until they were fully investigated and well after the election. We didn't hear about the planted parts, one way or the other, because of those same security rules. I DO remember the US security council trying to limit damage after Trump was elected.

The GOP has a choice of whom to run. I assume there will be a way that will be found, for them to switch candidates, if Trump is in prison, Even if it occurs in the window between his winning the primary, and election, they will find a way. It may even be to their advantage, as the new candidate receives Trumps blessing and gives Trump clemency.

[–] ggBarabajagal@lemmy.world 7 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Russian emails? Are you thinking of the Wikileaks stuff, with the hacked data from Clinton's campaign staffers? I am pretty sure those are different and separate from the emails that Comey was investigating for the FBI.

There are two "Hilary's emails" stories. It is easy to confuse the two -- Republicans worked very hard throughout 2016 to make it easy to confuse the two -- yet they are two different series of events and almost totally unrelated to one another.

The original "Buttery Males" story: Comey and the FBI investigated emails that were stored on a private server owned by the Clinton Foundation, a server that Hilary had used for official business while serving as Secretary of State. In July of 2016, Comey announced that while they did find a small number of documents marked "classified" stored on the server, this violation was obviously inadvertent and should not be prosecuted. "Sloppy but not criminal," or something like that. Then later in October (after taking a few months of heat from his fellow Republicans for not going after Clinton harder) Comey announced that there may be files on a laptop owned by Hilary's assistant, Huma Abedin, that the FBI had not yet had a chance to review. Comey announced this privately to a congressional committee and it was leaked almost instantly, about a week before election day.

The "From Russia with Love" email story: Meanwhile, Russian hackers infiltrated Hilary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign and stole thousands of personal emails and other data from her staffers and people they'd communicated with. None of these emails were classified and the FBI never investigated the Clinton campaign in this case (except as the victims of a crime). Wikileaks and Julian Assange got in on the action and built up lots of hype. That's when, in the middle of a campaign speech, Trump made his famous on-stage plea: "Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press."

Trump was clever, mendaciously associating the original "classified documents on your private server" controversy with the "Russia stole your data and is about to release it on Wikileaks" controversy, but the two stories don't really have anything to do with one another, at all, and they never really did.


It may even be to their advantage, as the new candidate receives Trumps blessing and gives Trump clemency.

I also have been wondering what the race will look like in six months, when all this speculation about Trump's trials (and potential prison time?) will be upon us for real.

Legally (so far at least) they say Trump can run from prison. If he were to win, as POTUS he'd have many options available to clear his name, dismiss his accusers, and attack his opponents.

I don't think Trump will give another candidate his endorsement, even from prison. If he does, it won't be without that other candidate publicly swearing fealty and promising to grant clemency, as you say. The way I see it, any candidate who'd be willing to do that will look weak and subservient, and probably look worse than Trump's going to look, even from prison, by the time they get to the general election.

I think the only way another candidate wins the GOP nomination is by taking it from Trump -- not by Trump lending it out to them.

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[–] Scientician@lemmy.world 7 points 9 months ago

I wish I had your optimism.

[–] spaceghoti@lemmy.one 6 points 9 months ago (1 children)

He shouldn't have been the nominee in 2016, either. It's not safe to assume anything at this point.

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[–] Professorozone@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago

You really think Trump will serve any time? If it were anyone else I might agree. Can't wait to see how this plays out.

[–] Phegan@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Most of those won't go to trial until after the election, and the courts have shown zero desire to actually punish him in a meaningful way. I will be very surprised if he is not the candidate

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[–] conditional_soup@lemm.ee 7 points 9 months ago (2 children)

I keep seeing messaging that essentially amounts to "Biden doesn't have to try, everything is great actually, and, besides, Trump is unelectable". Clearly the democrats learned nothing from 2016. This is too big to fuck up, don't phone it in.

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[–] neptune@dmv.social 5 points 9 months ago

Trump has all the weaknesses of an incumbent and few of the benefits. I knew some people who tried to play very agnostic about his record in 2016, but now as in 2020, the American people have a record to judge him on. And it's not very pretty. Biden is going to start laying into that record. And soon the negative polarization will build back up, after the GOP decides who exactly the are with their candidate chosen.

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