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If there’s one thing I’ve learned in the last ten years it is that I’ll never trust a political poll.
I think we will have a three way run for President between Biden ( D ), Haley ( R ), Trump ( I ) in November of 2024. Trump will be disqualified in most states preventing him from winning the Republican nomination. He will run independently splitting the right wing votes. Biden goes on to win 45 states.
Nope there is no way this is going to happen. So Trump's eligibility is going to hit the US Supreme Court. It is litigation on the Constitution itself with more or less zero case law around it. This is the kind of thing that every lawyer dreams of putting their name on. It will hit the US Supreme Court and they will take it. So he will be either eligible or ineligible in all 50 states it will not be ~~peace meal.~~ piecemeal
Now that doesn't mean that there won't be a major independent candidate for some other reasons, but not for this reason.
It is litigation on the Constitution itself with more or less zero case law around it.
There's a shit ton of precedent around the 14th.
On the third section? Almost all the case law I have seen is on the first section. Feel free to cite your cases.
It will go to the Supreme Court and they’ll rubber stamp so he can run.
Just because they're right-wing does not make them beholden to Trump. They've made some solid decisions lately.
It absolutely does mean that now.
The Supreme Court cannot issue a constitutional amendment, only the States or Congress can do that. It's going to be extremely difficult to claim the 14th Amendment doesn't apply to Trump based on the language and the fact that Confederates were barred from office without being convicted. The Supreme Court would be in breach of power to ignore what the Consitution says.
Oh no, breach of power! Good thing we can sue them right? ...right?
Yeah..I'll see you in cour...wait a minute.
The supreme court already rewrote the college loan law. I think they know they can't be held accountable and have little respect for the laws or constution beyond those that align with their ideology
A law is different than a Consitutional Amendment. They can't rewrite it and it's obvious what the Amendment was put in place for.
It would be pretty hypocritical given that a third of SCOTUS believes in the independent state legislature theory which pretty much lets states legislatures do whatever they want with regards to federal elections. But, that's probably not going to stop them siding with Trump.
Oh dear, I’m sure they are absolutely terrified of looking hypocritical
And they will say that regardless of the Civil War precedents say, a court needs to determine whether he participated in the insurrection via a conviction.
Piecemeal
Stop. I can only get so erect.
Would be awesome, but I don’t see it happening. This man has so much support still— especially in the high levels of state government— it’s disgusting. Republicans are still massively supportive of Trump and he’s nearly a shoe-in for the R nomination.
I think the reasoning above is based on the idea that he will be actually disqualified and not on the ballots as a convicted felon (at least I assume that's the "he's disqualified" angle here).
Although, sadly I think it's unlikely to happen before the election, and even if it did I wouldn't be in the slightest surprised for Republican states to just outright change whatever laws they need to (or just ignore the law) to put him on the state ballots.
I just realized even if he is disqualified, a shitload of people are going to write him in anyway and hand biden the win.
Trump will be disqualified in most states preventing him from winning the Republican nomination.
I doubt this really happens. Trump may only be disqualified in a handful of states which he would have lost anyway, and even if that happens I wouldn't put it past Republicans to ignore it and nominate him anyway.
They might even declare the whole thing unlawful interference on the part of the Biden administration, and send their own electors from those states again. Who's gonna stop them? The Supreme Court?
If one state can disqualify him, he is disqualified in all states.
An interesting theory, we'll see if it stands up to the scrutiny of the Supreme Court. We know how ethical and even-handed that group is in interpreting the law.
Removing Trump from the ballots will go to Trump’s Supreme Court. That won’t work.
Trump will be the republican nominee unless hell freezes over. That fucker will run from jail if he has to. Becoming president is his only way out of many of his DoJ cases.
The Supreme Court will have a hard time defending Trump in that case. The 14th Amendment Section 3 is solid and gives Congress the ability to allow him on the ballot with a 2/3 vote.
It’s not like this court hasn’t made crazy ass calls before.
I sure hope that is the case. But given how corrupt our system is, who knows.
Suddenly the media will stop giving this asshat any coverage.
A conservative plant will do that.
Makes sense knowing his vaccine opinion.
No shit.
Yeah. I would expect an insane conspiracy theorist to appeal to redhats and not normal people.
Big if true
To the surprise of -10 people
Good.
Feck em.
Isn't there "No Labels" party too? We gonna have a four way split?
Don't forget Cornell West. It's just absolute chaos.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
“With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a release.
Kennedy, an environmental lawyer and prominent anti-vaccine activist, was running in the Democratic primaries against Biden until last month, when he declared himself an independent after struggling to make inroads against the incumbent.
Former Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), a strong progressive and Kennedy’s original campaign manager, notably left his position just days after Kennedy announced he was switching affiliation.
Politico reported on Wednesday that Kennedy has been receiving donations from former Trump donors at a much higher rate than from former Biden donors, possibly signaling the risk for Republicans with his candidacy.
Other polls have found that Kennedy may hurt Trump more than Biden in a general election, including a USA Today/Suffolk University poll from last month that found Kennedy costs Trump what would be a narrow lead in a hypothetical race.
The Quinnipiac poll found that adding progressive activist Cornel West, who is also running as an independent, for a four-way race, leaves Biden with a narrower lead than he had in the three-way race.
The original article contains 357 words, the summary contains 200 words. Saved 44%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
“With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a release.
Tim Malloy just be a distant Kennedy cousin or something, because this take is extremely generous. RFK Jr has the charisma of a plastic bag. The only thing he shares with his dad is his name.
And you would think Junior would want to steer clear of running for President, given what happened to his dad when he ran.
Doubt