this post was submitted on 30 Mar 2025
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German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.

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[–] NigelFrobisher@aussie.zone 14 points 3 days ago (4 children)

Wouldn’t Russia have to suddenly produce a lot more young men who are still alive to invade any more countries?

[–] Kolanaki@pawb.social 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

Men who are still alive

Oh no... Putin found Dunharrow. Being alive isn't needed.

[–] a_baby_duck@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago

If only they had an asset in the US who could provide those.

[–] tempralanomaly@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Why produce when you can kidnap and pressgang from Ukraine?

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[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 176 points 5 days ago (21 children)

If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.

[–] BastingChemina@slrpnk.net 122 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (1 children)

This is specifically why France developed their nuclear arsenal under De Gaulle.

De Gaulle believed that the Americans could not be trusted to defend Europe, he was afraid that if the Russians would attack Europe with nuclear weapons the US would not defend us.

[–] Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works 68 points 5 days ago

And oh how right he was.

[–] torrentialgrain@lemm.ee 45 points 5 days ago (2 children)

America is already out of the question and I think most politicians in Europe are finally seeing that. But the problem runs much deeper still. With the US out of the picture, will Madrid declare war on Russia if they send little green men to a border village in Latvia?

[–] jenesaisquoi@feddit.org 36 points 5 days ago (3 children)

America is doing just fine, it's just the USA portion of it that is troubled

[–] MutilationWave@lemmy.dbzer0.com 14 points 5 days ago

Looks at cartels integrating into Mexican government, giant prisons, Guantanamo Bay, everything about Argentina and Venezuela... yep doing just great. At least they got that fucker Bolsonaro out in Brasil.

[–] whostosay@lemmy.world 18 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (2 children)

Lol I live here and I gotta say, Id sign off on us being renamed to The States of America, we are the most not united thing to ever exist. We are being held together by godamn silly string and hate porn.

[–] A_norny_mousse@feddit.org 18 points 5 days ago

"50 raccoons in a trenchcoat pretending to be a country"

[–] anzo@programming.dev 1 points 3 days ago

With the word United in it or not, that name is still ambiguous. America is a continent, the Brits conquered the North and a nation was born.

Meanwhile, incipient republics in the south were able to resist British Invasions with help of European Monarchies.

Or something like that.

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[–] daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 3 days ago

Danzig or war situation.

[–] SunshineJogger@feddit.org 15 points 5 days ago (4 children)

I really hope our politicians are not THAT dumb..... Hope is what we have

[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 13 points 5 days ago

Stupid or not, that's the playbook to watch for. Don't give Russia an inch on article 5, or they'll use it to undermine the whole alliance.

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[–] richardisaguy@lemmy.world 98 points 5 days ago (11 children)

They barely could handle a war with small Ukraine, a full scale war with NATO is a no-go; and I'm quite certain Putin won't live that long

[–] jaybone@lemmy.zip 54 points 5 days ago (20 children)

But with Trump on his side, he might make some progress.

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[–] lepinkainen@lemmy.world 28 points 5 days ago

They’ll make it ✨ inconvenient✨ for people.

Sabotaging water sources (already practiced this in Finland), power stations (happened in Sweden), cutting undersea cables.

Way too many people are willing to let other people die rather than be inconvenienced.

[–] Halcyon@discuss.tchncs.de 11 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.

Putin has no other choice: the entire Russian economy is dependent on war and armaments and would collapse if peace were concluded. Putin could no longer control his country without an external enemy.

Hence his narrative of the "Nazis" who must be fought in Ukraine (and soon on other borders (see Suwalki Gap)). This narrative of the Nazis ties in with the russian history of the Great Patriotic War, and this resonates with the Russian population. Putin is building a sequel to WWII, with renewed external threats, and the people are receptive to that.

Therefore, Putin is not at all interested in a peace treaty. And the conflict with NATO countries has already begun: the severed power cables and data cables in the Baltic Sea and the attacks on our information systems should have been regarded as acts of war from their beginning. The threat is there NOW. And Europe and NATO must build up strength.

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[–] ManicMambo@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago

Presidents have access to the best medical resources, and Putin seems to be in fine shape. He could live 10 more years. I'm saying that in the hope of a pleasant surprise.

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[–] daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

I hope Putin dies before that. And in such a personal regime his dead and the consequent fight for power could lead to big changes in Russia.

So let's hope Zelensky was right, and it's sooner than later.

[–] ILikeBoobies@lemmy.ca 3 points 3 days ago

His replacement is going to have to do something big to legitimize their rule

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 36 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (11 children)

Not surprised. The level of European alarm about the Russian threat being real has been greater than what could have been sustained without there being secret direct evidence.

Here's hoping when he does that and immediately starts to lose, he doesn't decide to end the world.

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[–] CTDummy@lemm.ee 52 points 5 days ago (4 children)

Checks out. Got to capitalise on having his asset installed in the highest office of the US before things risk stabilising.

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[–] RejZoR@lemmy.ml 40 points 5 days ago (5 children)

Russia can't even take over Ukraine and they'll take on entire NATO? Even if we exclude USA from it there is just no chance. Only if dumbass Trump collaborates with Russia to attack NATO together. That would be WW3 then...

[–] Kissaki@feddit.org 40 points 5 days ago

They're already quite successful in hybrid warfare against NATO and EU.

Probing NATO's security guarantees doesn't mean taking it on fully. It means testing out how far you can go without them fully committing with military.

[–] torrentialgrain@lemm.ee 14 points 5 days ago (1 children)

There’s this old saying that goes something like: "The European Airforce could beat Russia any day of the week - as long as they don’t have to do it the next week as well."

Meaning, the most pressing problem are our ammunition stockpiles. If you research that you’ll quickly see how bad the situation is in the EU currently. The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.

Then there’s also the issue of lacking infrastructure, the absence of a unified command structure in Europe and with the withdrawal of the US, also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).

[–] Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works 20 points 5 days ago (2 children)

The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.

You should read these claims with the same amount of nuance you use on claims like "Russia runs out of tanks/missiles/shells".

What they mean is "we can sustain a full-on, large scale offensive at optimal supply for two weeks, before we need to scale to a lower operational pace and stockpile material for our individual operations."

No military ever has enough, Russia "ran out" a few days into their offense, and yet they've been fighting for years.

the absence of a unified command structure in Europe

Eh, NATO high command exists just fine. Sure, it would be headed by the 2nd in command, but it works.

also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).

Yeah, Europe has a terrifying lack of enablers, but the reason for that is, apart from intelligence, is that European militaries aren't prepared for, or want to be prepared for, large scale offensive power projection away from home.

You can drive a truck from Gibraltar to Talin in Estonia in 48 hours. A train takes slightly longer, though I imagine clearing the railways is a lot easier under martial law.

Europe only has one good wing of tanker/transport planes, but we have hundreds and hundreds of airfields, and you don't need much mid-air refueling in a defensive war where everyone has capital cities in easy jet range.

The lack of airborne radar and satellites is MUCH worse for Europe than any other enablers.

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