this post was submitted on 31 May 2024
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Everyone that made 538 worth reading was laid off. Even Nate Silver is gone, and he took his model with him. We'll see how they do this election, but I'm not paying attention to them this election.
Votemaster and Zenger at electoralvote.com have a decent site. They take a 'model of models' approach and while their editorials are decidedly liberal, they put math and statistical analysis at the forefront and show their work.
And even before that they were tragically wrong in 2016. Fuck polls.
They weren't incorrect, they predicted Trump had a chance to win and he made that chance happen
What they did that was stupid was oversell what an odds advantage meant for Clinton and when caught in their own mistelling of how their own reports work proceeded to make themselves look like that nerd who can't admit that he fucked up and blames it all on other people not understanding what he was "akshualay" saying.
No they weren't. They gave trump a 33% chance of winning and successfully predicted how he could win.