CNN is now under right wing mgmt so take their proclamations with a grain of salt -- they're cheerleading for the "fake election" team.
this post was submitted on 02 Feb 2024
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In my experience, CNN viewers consider themselves centrists. Their politics are very liberal in the classical sense. Unlike Trump voters who want to hurt people while simultaneously feeding their victimhood.
This.
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn't have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +3 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +7 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it's an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
Trump wins, 312 to 226.
This is a change from the last time I posted this where Trump won, 278 to 260. Michigan and Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump instead of Biden.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Now he needs to pick up +44 which is a much, much, steeper ask...
I’d like to know why people are downvoting. Is this inaccurate?
People don't like downbeat Biden news, especially if it's true. Downvoting it isn't going to change things though. You have to be aware of what's happening to avert disaster.
It's inaccurate in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump
In Pennsylvania, Biden leads in 3 of 4 January polls.
Why it's important to keep looking I guess, the last time I looked, the most recent polls were Morning Consult showing Trump up:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Just to be clear: your link shows that the most recent poll is Franklin & Marshall, which has Biden ahead.
That's what I'm saying, I should have re-checked the link. :) Entirely my fault.
You know what...let's just make sure that everyone double checks Republicans haven't made people ineligible and let's make sure everyone votes. Forget right wing propaganda to discourage..
ITT: centrists coming up with excuses to ignore polling.
Everyone should ignore polling and just vote. Polling means nothing. Voting does.
Ok. Ignore the polls. Never change because the opinions of the electorate don't matter.
Polling said Hillary would win.
Polling said the red wave.
Polling said Biden loses.
They always do...
This is the best summary I could come up with:
With presidential primaries underway and a 2020 general election rematch seemingly the most likely outcome, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows former President Donald Trump narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden in what’s shaping up to be a close contest nationally.
The poll finds that a victory by either candidate would leave most of the nation dissatisfied and a substantial share upset.
Voters in the poll were asked whether they would like to see another candidate from within the party they’re closest to run as an independent if Biden were the Democratic nominee and Trump the Republican.
About 7 in 10 (72%) Republican-aligned voters say the party has a better chance to win the White House with Trump at the top of the ticket than someone else, and 57% say they would be enthusiastic should he become president again.
Despite numerous national polls showing her holding a broader lead over Biden than Trump does in hypothetical matchups, just 54% of GOP-aligned voters see her as having a realistic shot at winning, and a scant 16% would be enthusiastic about her should she become the next occupant of the White House.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from January 25-30 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability-based panel.
The original article contains 1,435 words, the summary contains 211 words. Saved 85%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
If Joe can't shift these polls soon the DNC has a plan B, either Pritzker and Newsom. Joe can resign before the convention for health reasons, no one can argue that.
I want to like newsom but I was kind of disappointed with him when he debated desantis
I thought he performed well during that debate. But in fairness, I only saw clips.
edit: I'm not a huge fan of Newsom's neoliberal policies. But the man seems like he can communicate effectively with Americans. He's a candidate for 2024 not 1994. With Trump on the ballot, I will take that.
I was disappointed with his recent vetoes. He's pretty obviously trying to get the establishment behind him so he can be the party's preordained foregone conclusion in 2028.