this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2023
11 points (60.4% liked)

politics

18904 readers
2946 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

  1. Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
  2. Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
  3. Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
  4. No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
  5. Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
  6. No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News

• World News

• Business News

• Political Discussion

• Ask Politics

• Military News

• Global Politics

• Moderate Politics

• Progressive Politics

• UK Politics

• Canadian Politics

• Australian Politics

• New Zealand Politics

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
outrageousmatter@lemmy.world
aidan@lemmy.world
jordanlund@lemmy.world
HLMenckenFan@lemmy.world
little_cow@lemmy.world
11
RFK Jr. running might cause an upset in the US election of 2024. (lemmy.world)
submitted 11 months ago by TheOneWithTheHair@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
28 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

So what if RFK Jr. continues to run? Well it's possible he spoils Biden's chance at being re-elected. I fully expect the downvote brigade to visit this post and bury it, but at least consider what I am saying.

In 2020

Winner: 306 (Joe Biden)

Loser: 232 (Donald J. Trump)

Trump versus Biden? Young voters not excited about choosing between oldest candidates ever

The prospect of choosing between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both more than twice their age, underwhelms the growing number of voters under the age of 40.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/10/12/young-voters-not-excited-by-trump-biden-rematch-of-oldest-candidates-ever/70796232007/?gnt-cfr=1

So how many voters are typically that young?

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-individuals-who-voted-in-thousands-and-individuals-who-voted-as-a-share-of-the-voter-population-by-age/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

(who voted in thousands)

  • 18-24 | 7,372
  • 25-34 | 15,396
  • 35-44 | 18,401
  • 45-64 | 43,661
  • 65+ | 37,086

To make this easier, that's roughly a third of voters.

  • up to 44 | 41,169
  • 45 or older | 80,747

Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. (currently age 69) isn't young, but is younger than Biden (currently 80) or Trump (currently 77)

Now, some will vote for Biden, and some will vote Trump. But could a 12% tipping occur? Possibly. If RFK Jr. runs, and saps away votes from Biden, it would only take 37 electoral votes (about 12%) from Biden's 2020 performance to put Biden at 269 votes. It takes 270 to win.

But there's no way Trump's gonna get enough to win, you say. He doesn't have to:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/faq

What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress.

The House of Representatives elects the President from the three (3) Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote and it is up to the individual States to determine how to vote. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no State delegation in the House and cannot vote). A candidate must receive at least 26 votes (a majority of the States) to be elected.

The Senate elects the Vice President from the two (2) Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator casts one vote for Vice President. (Since the District of Columbia is has no Senators and is not represented in the vote). A candidate must receive at least 51 votes (a majority of Senators) to be elected.

If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House.

House

This data is from Sept. 20 https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/20/politics/mccarthy-house-speaker-vote-margin-numbers-dg/index.html

  • R 221 | 31 far-right Republicans who have repeatedly voted against McCarthy + 18 moderate Republicans in districts Biden won in 2020 + 172 other Republicans
  • D 212 | 212 Democrats
  • X | 2 vacancies

All it takes is a party-line vote and a Republican becomes Prez.

Senate

This data is from https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm

117th Congress (2021–2023)

  • Majority Party: Democrats (48 seats)

  • Minority Party: Republicans (50 seats)

  • Other Parties: 2 Independents (all caucus with the Democrats)

  • Total Seats: 100

All it takes is a party-line vote and a Democrat becomes VP.

TL;DR It could be Trump (R) and Harris (D)...

top 28 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] MegaUltraChicken@lemmy.world 45 points 11 months ago (3 children)

I have yet to see compelling evidence that RFK pulls more Democratic voters than Republicans. And the more attention he gets, the worse he'll do.

[–] kobra@lemm.ee 22 points 11 months ago (4 children)

Isn’t RFK Jr super anti-vaxx? I know nothing of his platform but I don’t see him taking D voters based on that.

[–] TechyDad@lemmy.world 18 points 11 months ago

Yes. He also thinks that the COVID virus was made by China to infect everyone except them and Jews. (RFK Jr is highly anti-semitic also.) I'll bet it will come as a huge shock to anyone who is Chinese or Jewish who got COVID that they actually couldn't get it because they should be immune.

[–] Squibbles@lemmy.ca 12 points 11 months ago

He's also been going on about all kinds of conspiracy theories, appearing on foxnews, speaking at CPAC, etc. Other than the Kennedy name he doesn't seem appealing to Democrats at all as far as I can tell. Also his own siblings have spoken out against him.

[–] lagomorphlecture@lemm.ee 9 points 11 months ago

Extra super antivax. Based on that alone most Democrats would refuse to vote for him because it makes him sound like one hell of a Republican.

[–] rayyyy@kbin.social 8 points 11 months ago

The orange guy found out that RFK would take more votes from him so he will be going after him.

[–] RojoSanIchiban@lemmy.world 10 points 11 months ago

It's very clear the GOP thinks he's more of a problem for them than Democrats because as soon as he declared he's going to run as an independent, they began attacking him profusely, calling him radical left, electric cars for everyone, yadda yadda.

[–] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 5 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Exactly. Democrats woke up in 2016. They have won tons of elections since, including midterms. They are not going to fooled by the wolf in Grandma's outfit.

[–] ripcord@kbin.social 2 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

They stirred a little, but I wouldn't say they've woken up. Especially people 35 and under who still aren't showing up to vote (although most people aren't)

[–] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 5 points 11 months ago

That's actually 100% wrong. "Most people" did turn up to vote in 2020. 67% of citizens over age 18.

Voters under 35 increased the most. 57% of them voted.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/record-high-turnout-in-2020-general-election.html

[–] ashok36@lemmy.world 42 points 11 months ago (3 children)

Rfk Jr will win zero electoral votes. I would stake my life and my entire family's lives on it.

[–] ApostleO@startrek.website 22 points 11 months ago

Yeah, the real question is if he saps enough votes to flip a swing state.

[–] TheOneWithTheHair@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

Another likely scenario is that many (not all) of the young voters (and independents) simply don't vote. This gives older and polarized voters more voting power. Then it could become a Trump/Hillary repeat.

[–] Kalkaline@leminal.space 2 points 11 months ago

As long as you're not betting against a Sicilian when death is on the line, I think you're good.

[–] bostonbananarama@lemmy.world 20 points 11 months ago (1 children)

In 1992 Ross Perot got 18.9% of the vote, nearly 20 million Americans voted for him, and he didn't win a single electoral vote.

[–] TechyDad@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (2 children)

The problem isn't that RFK Jr will get Electoral Votes. The issue is that he might take votes away from Biden and let Trump win.

Say you have 60 Biden voters and 50 Trump voters. Biden wins easily. If RFK Jr enters the race and gets 11 of those Biden voters to vote for him, then Biden will get 49 and will lose to Trump's 50.

[–] nix@merv.news 4 points 11 months ago (2 children)

What would be biden voter is going to vote for rfk? More likely he’d gain support from Trump fans

[–] TechyDad@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago

RFK Jr's hope there is that a low information voter would vote for the Kennedy name over Biden. You're right, though, in that the slightest bit of attention to who RFK Jr is will drain all support from the left.

Apparently, conservatives are freaking out so much over RFK Jr pulling away Trump votes that they are actively calling RFK Jr a socialist (and every other trigger phrase they use).

[–] pmw@lemmy.world 1 points 11 months ago

Never-trump republicans, new-age anti-science liberals, and yeah low information voters who just recognize his last name. But I too would guess he would siphon more from trump voters.

[–] bostonbananarama@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

The original article is discussing the possibility that RFK Jr. could syphon enough electoral votes to ensure that no candidate reaches 270, thereby moving the vote to the House. I don't see that as likely or possible.

I suppose he could take Biden voters, but I think it's much more likely that he takes Trump leaning voters.

[–] hperrin@lemmy.world 9 points 11 months ago

He’s on the side of conservatives on a lot of issues they care about, so imo, he’s more likely to take votes from Trump. Especially since there are conservatives who don’t like Trump, but will never vote for anyone with a D next to their name, even if they were Jesus Christ himself.

[–] BassTurd@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Trump supporters are some of the dumbest fucks in the world, and I don't think that even they are dumb enough to vote for RFKKK. Not a single Democrat or left leaning individual will vote for him. He's got nothing to bring to the table except name recognition, and that will be worthless the moment people that don't know him hear him talk or once he gets more national coverage.

[–] ripcord@kbin.social 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Bunch of people said something very similar about Trump

[–] BassTurd@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago

That's true, but I think that what he did can't be replicated as effectively. When Trump came on the scene, he spoke to the idiots like nobody had before. They soaked that shit up and all jizzed in their collective pants. Since then, others have tried to speak as hateful as him, but it doesn't strike the same way because it's not new. Honestly, if he sticks around to the general, he'll get some votes, but it won't be from anyone that was ever going to vote for Biden.

[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (2 children)

And now Cenk threw his hat in, too.

[–] dcpDarkMatter@kbin.social 3 points 11 months ago

He's not even eligible to be president. Not sure how that's gonna work.

[–] PrincessLeiasCat@sh.itjust.works 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Wait what

[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 1 points 11 months ago

Yeah, Cenk announced he is running too, since he wants Biden to not run. Not sure how that's going to work...and this is after listening to a session with Anna asking him various questions, etc.