We also need a better NDP leader. I like Jagmeet but he has not succeeded at this.

And to engage peoples hard, negative feelings. The conservatives keep capturing the NDP's natural base because they refuse to actually reflect their feelings and perceptions back to them. This whole "let's get along, and cancel your bank fees" thing doesn't resonate.

we need to rebuild the left

Well, memberships are cheap and it's easy to get involved at the riding level where you can vote for the local leadership at the AGM, help make policy at conventions, vote for the leader,... Membership has its privileges.

Wab Kinew seems to be doing well. But I don't know if MB would give him up.

Generously, Trump put him in a bind. On the one hand around a third of his supporters would be down with being the 51st state, or are at least fans of what Trump is doing. If he came out too hard against Trump, he could have bled support to the PPC,

Ironically, electoral reform would save the Conservative Party. It would probably split back into a more PC style centre-right party and a more populist Reform style party. I think an old Joe Clark style PC leader could have done better, but with ⅓ of the modern CPC Qonvoy supporting Trumpians, I don't know that they could elect one. If they did, it would be Erin O'Toole all over again.

I'm gen-x, my kids are Z. We all voted ABC.

We best start fighting back regardless of how it turns out.

Imagine if he came in 91st. It'd be a heritage moment up there with balcony guy

No harm to you at all, but I'm avoiding that site completely and advising everyone I work with and care about to stick with one of the other poll prediction sites like 338 if they have to use anything (scroll down for tl;dr).

Originally called polarispolls, smartvoting is run out of Polaris Entertainment.

When the smartvoting site was launched during the last Ontario election and started showing up on facebook/twitter/lemmy/etc, they didn't include specific information about their (proprietary) methodology, but they've put together a pdf for the federal launch. If anyone cares to read it, it's here.

Polaris Entertainment is made up of 3 people, afaict, and they're all podcast influencers. The youtube link here is a joint podcast they did 5 months ago. In it, the guy who claims he made the smartvoting website suggests twice just in this one interview that the NDP should bow out federally. Pretty standard Hot Take these days so not particularly sus, except that it's coming from a guy who made a vote recommendation website.

The person running the site used the royal WE a tonne when smartvoting was just one person during the Ontario election, and he now claims to have a "bipartisan data board." The site also now has someone they're naming as a general manager of the site, and she's said the NDP is running a harassment campaign against them, which is affecting everyone's mental health. Now, the same guy who claims he made the site says the reason he won't name any of the people on his new board and won't share any of his data is because of the NDP.

tl;dr: At best, smartvoting is a do-gooder project by someone trying to save us all from ourselves. With project 2025 rushing down the pipe and the mass media influence of the rightwing, I totally get it. People with fab intentions don't always come up smelling like roses, and I never require Purity from my left allies. But at worst, smartvoting could be another disinfo campaign, claiming to be anti-conservative, openly interfering with our elections to amplify the appearance of division between Canadians on the left, when we're already pretty cool with strategic voting and have been doing it when necessary for decades.

[disclaimer: this is the second comment I've left about being suspicious of this site since I made my lemmy account.]

There's also 338Canada's per-riding projection. There's the one by Eric Grenier too (CBC Poll Tracker).

One should check more than one to ensure there's no funny business going on.

It's not even a coalition.

Coallitons are when the party with the most seats (but not a majority) doesn't form government because the other parties all work together to form government.

When the party with the most seats (but not majority) forms government with the help of another party on non confidence votes , it's just a minority government.

They just try to scare people with the coalition talk to try and make it seem nefarious, such as when it almost happened to Harper, but it's a legitimate part of how our government works.

There was a point while votes were being counted tonight, we could have theoretically had a con+bq coalition government.

Edit: and even as of right now, the cons+bq+ndp could form a coalition, but I can't imagine those 3 parties ever working together other than to trigger an election via vote of no confidence.

That was awesome.

Yeah way too eager, super annoying. The woman beside him is visibly annoyed with him it's pretty entertaining