Fuck it. If nukes are an excuse to prevent all conventional intervention, then nukes are a free pass to commit any crimes one wishes against non-nuclear powers. Put boots on the ground, or accept nuclear proliferation as a fact of life once countries realize that Ukraine proves that giving up nukes does not result in international support for sovereignty against revanchist states.
this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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If nukes are an excuse to prevent all conventional intervention, then nukes are a free pass to commit any crimes one wishes against non-nuclear powers.
Well... yeah.
The easy solution is to show that nukes are not protection against all conventional intervention. We should have given Zelenskyy a no-fly zone back when he asked for one.
"Easy." 👌
Easy as in simple, not easy as in likely or without cost.
Step 1: Put boots on Russian territory
Step 2: (nuclear) Winter is coming
Step 3: 💥 ~~profit~~ 💥
Nobody’s saying NATO should invade Russia.
We’re saying NATO could EASILY establish IADS over the vast majority of Ukraine to defend their civilian population and infrastructure.
Put up proof that you know this would happen, or stop fear-mongering.
But they are. Its been settled decades ago.
The only thing that surprises me in geopolitics right now is that Iran is not mass producing nukes yet.
It's a delicate process, not easy to simply produce a bunch of nuclear weapons. Iran is at the point where they could have a few inside of a year anytime they actually want to trigger that particular international crisis.
The moment they would try to make the last dash to nukes, is the moment the US would be bombing the everlasting shit out of Iran to prevent it.
Like they did in North Korea?
North Korea was under Chinese protection. This is what Iran likely is trying to do with Russia.
They've been clear that they don't do it because they don't think they'd make Iran more secure.
If nukes are an excuse to prevent all conventional intervention, then nukes are a free pass to commit any crimes one wishes against non-nuclear powers
That is the assumption Russia is operating under.
Yeah this is such a losing strategy. All it does is authorize crimes in the short term and drive up nuclear proliferation in the long term.
Of course, the alternative is a game of chicken with nuclear powers to test the doctrine of mutually assured destruction.
Still, better to do that now than years from now with the smaller, more radical parties who will by then control nukes, thanks to the nuclear proliferation the current strategy drives.
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This is not true. Most NATO countries want to avoid fighting on their own soil.
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Don't say things that encourage nuclear proliferation
How is Ukraine "their own soil"?
My expectation, and something I think shared by most NATO countries, is that the Russian regime would interpret western troops on the front line as a ground invasion of Russia by those countries. Something that would win over the Russian people into supporting an invasion of the bordering countries of Finland, Norway, Poland, and the Baltics.
Not to say that any no-fly-zone or a tripwire force in Ukraine would lead to Russians running into Narva, but there is still these sorts of non-nuclear escalations that western troops in "annexed" oblasts would likely cause.
Who knows where the red line is, but a lot of people in the west think it's located before the point of troops in Donetsk.
Some game theory about red lines in the Russia-Ukraine war: https://youtu.be/tM0ZTEz7Bzc
lead to Russians running into Narva
I have bad news for you
I mean Putin's soldiers, not Russian speakers.
Thank goodness an expert is here to swat down the drivel a top NATO Admiral is spewing.
No NATO country has expressed concern about being nuked. This is a question of geopolitics, not military strategy.
Poland? Germany?
If not for nukes, Poland probably would have rolled Russia by themselves. The rest of NATO could just be emotional support.
If it was just Poland they wouldn't mind getting nuked if it means getting rid of Moscow. Ironically it's being in NATO that's holding them back.
Very true, and if the nuclear threat goes away, it'll look like a pack of junk yard dogs let loose on a kitten.
I'm out of the loop. Is Poland considered to have a strong army?
Poland's military is about half again larger than Ukraine prior to the war, large portions of it are very well trained, and their equipment is significantly better. If they decided to march to Moscow, nothing Russia has, short of nukes, would slow them down. And Poland would really like to discuss with them, some of the things that happened in WW2, in an up front and personal way.
All this shows is that other countries (China, etc.) will have carte blanche if they have nukes. If they don't, they'll get them. Imagine a nuclear armed Venezuela going after their neighbours because conventional intervention is too risky suddenly. Blah.
It’s nice to see this war proving that nuclear disarmament is unwise both for peaceful nations wishing to maintain stable borders and for aggressor nations seeking to invade the neighbors who gave up their nukes.
Like, given Ukrainian history it’s kinda shocking they gave them up, even with all the assurances they were given.
They were barely given any assurances. They were given a pinky promise to be independent, pinky promise to not get nuked and UNSC provided assistance ONLY IF nuclear weapons are used against them.