My money says this race won't be nearly as close as the polls suggest. Harris voters are far more motivated to keep Trump out than his supporters are to keep him in.
this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2024
174 points (96.3% liked)
politics
19089 readers
3884 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
And a large chunk of the younger voters aren't responding to pollsters
I’m 57. I can’t count the number of SMS messages from “pollsters” that I’ve ignored over the past few months. And if the huge number of unknown callers I haven’t bothered to answer is any indication, then I’ve ignored many dozens of pollsters that way as well.
I'm 29 and have gotten zero lol
I'm in my 30s in a blue state. The only text I've received was from a MAGA fundraising campaign disguised as a poll.
Also in my 30s in a safe blue state, and despite being a donor to several dem/progressive candidates, I have received precisely zero poll/campaign texts. I can’t help but wonder if it has something to do with me dropping traditional social media when I was 23 and never touching my accounts again. I’m pretty sure Meta and Twitter think I died at age 23 and I’m totally ok with that.
Thanks for making me feel young again for not answering the six unknown phone calls I get every day.
I really need to move out of a swing state.
I don’t answer any calls but I sometimes get polls via text message. I’ll sometimes fill out the latter.
My wife got 16 texts yesterday. And we aren’t a swing state. I’m afraid to say citizens united has made it a nearly universal annoyance.
A huge chunk of informed traditional conservative voters in red areas aren't tipping their hand because of possible MAGA violence. Also, upper echelon Republicans want to defeat MAGA and regain control of their party but do not want to telegraph their votes.
No one should.
my phone has been automatically marking their texts as spam 90% of the time so I doubt most people are
I also read many of the polls would refuse to count the youngest voters anyway, as they only want to count 'likely voters' and for some the criteria is 'having voted in real elections at least twice', which is impossible for people under 22.
Harris voters are far more motivated to keep Trump out than his supporters are to keep him in.
I'm pretty sure that's wrong. Remember that to Trump voters Harris is a woke China-loving communist n****r who'll destroy America. They're straight up fanatics.
Hasnt trump been called a really old Russia-loving fascist rapist who will destroy America?
I mean he is to an extent, which makes democrats at best about as motivated to vote as Republicans who aren't put off by Trump's policies (they exist, surprisingly). However, many democrats also either hate Harris in particular or hate the Democratic establishment as a whole, so in general I'd say Republicans are more motivated. Which make sense; if democrats were more motivated than Republicans this election would be a cinch.
In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older.
The partisan gap is narrower than it was in 2020, when views of early voting were more partisan, and Republicans take that as a good sign. But the GOP still is counting on more of its older voters to show up on Election Day, while Democrats have more votes in the bank.
So not lagging as much as 2020...
And concerning because Biden only won by 80k votes and it's literally his home state.
The gap in early voting was never going to be as wide as 2020. Trump was actively telling his cult to NOT vote early. Now they're telling them to do just that.
At the end of the day, the take-home message of this article is that Democrats are over-performing with seniors relative to 2020.
Trump is running 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters ages 65 and over, slipping back from the previous month, when he and Harris were tied with that demographic. It’s a major shift from 2020, when Trump carried 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania in a losing effort in the state.
Not really. Trump was telling them not to vote by mail.
Women live longer than men. The geriatric population will naturally be majority female.
That's one reason why I put the 8nformation from the article in the comments
Doesnt matter, their goal is to send the election to the Supreme Court and undemocratically win
NBC Early and mail in so far. 11am EST Nov 1 has 65 million votes so far. The battle ground only view is reflecting the OP's article for PA.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania, his path to victory becomes very difficult. But, there is other media.
Recent polls show Kamala Harris with an advantage of 19 to 29 percentage points among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots, the Washington Post reports.
I'm gonna need an official JordanLund breakdown on how this affects everything.
(Not being sarcastic at all. I'm nervous about this shit.)
Politico - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for Politico:
Wiki: reliable - Politico is considered generally reliable for American politics. A small number of editors say that Politico is a biased source.
MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America
Media Bias Fact Check | bot supportSearch topics on Ground.News
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612