this post was submitted on 12 Jun 2024
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I mean if LLM/Diffusion type AI is a dead-end and the extra investment happening now doesn't lead anywhere beyond that. Yes, likely the bubble will burst.
But, this kind of investment could create something else. We'll see. I'm 50/50 on the potential of it myself. I think it's more likely a lot of loud talking con artists will soak up all the investment and deliver nothing.
bubbles have nothing to do with technology, the tech is just a tool to build the hype. The bubble will burst regardless of the success of the tech at most success will slightly delay the burst, because what is bursting isnt the tech its the financial structures around it.
It's looking like a dead end. The content that can be fed into the big LLMs has already been done. New stuff is a combination of actual humans and stuff generated by LLMs. It then runs into an ouroboros problem where it just eats its own input.
I mostly agree, with the caveat that 99% of AI usage today just stupid gimmicks and very few people or companies are actually using what LLMs offer effectively.
It kind of feels like when schools got sold those Smart Whiteboards that were supposed to revolutionize teaching in the classroom, only to realize the issue wasn't the tech, but the fact that the teachers all refused to learn and adapt and let the things gather dust.
I think modern LLMs should be used almost exclusively as an assistive tool to help empower a human worker further, but everyone seems to want an AI that you can just tell 'do the thing' and have it spit out a finalized output. We are very far from that stage in my opinion, and as you stated LLM tech is unlikely to get us there without some sort of major paradigm shift.
To be fair, electronic whiteboards are some of the jankiest piles of trash I've ever had to use. I swear to God you need to re-calibrate them every 5 minutes.
Yeah, I was thinking more if there's either an evolutionary improvement or revolutionary (or some movement toward AGI). For me it's better if not, so I get to keep my job for a few more years. But, my general feeling is with the cash injection, there's some chance of a breakthrough.