this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2024
179 points (98.4% liked)

World News

39004 readers
2660 users here now

A community for discussing events around the World

Rules:

Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.


Lemmy World Partners

News !news@lemmy.world

Politics !politics@lemmy.world

World Politics !globalpolitics@lemmy.world


Recommendations

For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 42 points 9 months ago (4 children)

They're trying to authoritarian their way out of a massive speculation bubble.

I don't think it will work, unless you can will away a black hole. Debt is a kind of gravity.

[–] Aurenkin@sh.itjust.works 10 points 9 months ago (1 children)

You mean if you can pick up enough speed in the transverse direction you can circle around it and never hit it?

[–] GreenEnigma@lemmy.world 6 points 9 months ago

Use the debt’s gravity well to slingshot into the stratosphere!

[–] GreatAlbatross@feddit.uk 6 points 9 months ago (2 children)

If they're external creditors, it makes it a lot easier for them to go "nope, not paying that, what are you going to do?" when they're one massive state-backed monolith.

[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 4 points 9 months ago

"Give Taiwan nukes", if the Dark Brandon memes are any indication.

Sovereign default is a thing. It’s a short term solution that can get a country out of immediate danger, but has very negative long term effects.

[–] porcariasagrada@slrpnk.net 4 points 9 months ago (1 children)

that depends on who the creditors are and how they demand payment. a pound of flesh or a dove feather. evergrande went bust at the same time china became the world biggest auto exporter. i think china participation in the global economy demands new economic theories, considering the promiscuity between the public sector and the "private" sector.

[–] Dead_or_Alive@lemmy.world 8 points 9 months ago (1 children)

China became one of the world’s largest exporters of electric cars because their domestic market for vehicles has crashed. Now their industry is dumping cars in foreign markets to try and stay solvent.

The US has closed its markets to Chinese cars with high tariffs. That has left the EU as a dumping ground for Chinese high end EVs and the rest of the 3rd world for everything else. This is not sustainable, the EU will eventually block Chinese imports to protect their own industry. The third world can only absorb so much inventory especially with flagging economies.

[–] porcariasagrada@slrpnk.net 5 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

of course adjustments will be made. but one can't really say that chinese economy is going to crash when no examples of a 1.5 billion people economic power existed before.

and lets not forget that when demand rises for ev's in western economies, considering the production capacity of the chinese market even high tariffs won't make a dent on their exports. the eu is not ready to supply demand of ev's by 2035. unless the state invests directly into car manufacturers just like the chinese gov is doing.

also another thing no one expects is the opening of the 1.5 billion consumer market as a bargaining chip by the chinese gov as a way to consolidate their position on the global market.

imho, the chinese gov has a lot of market solutions they haven't used but that can be activated and negotiated in record time.

edit: just to add their increased car exports are to russia, which is not that good of a consumer market with everything going on there, but it could teach them a lesson on how to corner non western markets. the complexity of the global economy favours the chinese at this point in time. they have more options than the western world.

[–] Dead_or_Alive@lemmy.world 6 points 9 months ago (1 children)

China has been dangling their consumer market to Western companies for the last 20 years as a way to encourage investment. It hasn’t turned out well for them and many companies are leaving China. Suddenly reopening already “open markets” is not something the West is going to buy. You only get to pull that trick once.

The Demographics in China are also terrible. They are no longer the most populous nation on Earth. They are also the fastest aging due to the effects of the 1 child policy. The problem today isn’t that they aren’t running out of babies, they did that 20years ago. The problem is they are running out of 20 something’s to replace the older generations.

Add this to the issues with debt and the property market implosion and I don’t see China making it through the 2030s without some kind of fundamental government change.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

[–] porcariasagrada@slrpnk.net 1 points 9 months ago

oh we'll buy it. we'll buy it because we are desperate for good consumer markets and china is that. also demographics is way worse in the west.

see this post about raising the retirement age to 71 in the uk. https://slrpnk.net/post/6418235

[–] maness300@lemmy.world 1 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Debt is a kind of gravity.

Uh... no. If you pay attention to history, debt can and is wiped away without repercussion.

Debt is more of a threat, than anything else. If China fails to pay their debts, does the world just stop doing business with China?

The reason why there's so much unpaid debt is because the ruling class has convinced workers to sell themselves out. That's all. It doesn't actually need to be paid just like college loans. The world would in fact be a better place if it wasn't paid. The only people who get screwed are investors with more money than you.

[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 2 points 9 months ago

Sure, to some of that - but China's real estate market is simply vast, at one estimate over 50 trillion dollars' worth - and individual wealth in China is heavily tied to RE. If that bubble pops, it's not just the investors who will be up in arms.

[–] groupofcrows@lemmy.ca 1 points 9 months ago

Can you provide some examples where debt was waived away without repercussions?