this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2024
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[–] porcariasagrada@slrpnk.net 5 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

of course adjustments will be made. but one can't really say that chinese economy is going to crash when no examples of a 1.5 billion people economic power existed before.

and lets not forget that when demand rises for ev's in western economies, considering the production capacity of the chinese market even high tariffs won't make a dent on their exports. the eu is not ready to supply demand of ev's by 2035. unless the state invests directly into car manufacturers just like the chinese gov is doing.

also another thing no one expects is the opening of the 1.5 billion consumer market as a bargaining chip by the chinese gov as a way to consolidate their position on the global market.

imho, the chinese gov has a lot of market solutions they haven't used but that can be activated and negotiated in record time.

edit: just to add their increased car exports are to russia, which is not that good of a consumer market with everything going on there, but it could teach them a lesson on how to corner non western markets. the complexity of the global economy favours the chinese at this point in time. they have more options than the western world.

[–] Dead_or_Alive@lemmy.world 6 points 9 months ago (1 children)

China has been dangling their consumer market to Western companies for the last 20 years as a way to encourage investment. It hasn’t turned out well for them and many companies are leaving China. Suddenly reopening already “open markets” is not something the West is going to buy. You only get to pull that trick once.

The Demographics in China are also terrible. They are no longer the most populous nation on Earth. They are also the fastest aging due to the effects of the 1 child policy. The problem today isn’t that they aren’t running out of babies, they did that 20years ago. The problem is they are running out of 20 something’s to replace the older generations.

Add this to the issues with debt and the property market implosion and I don’t see China making it through the 2030s without some kind of fundamental government change.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

[–] porcariasagrada@slrpnk.net 1 points 9 months ago

oh we'll buy it. we'll buy it because we are desperate for good consumer markets and china is that. also demographics is way worse in the west.

see this post about raising the retirement age to 71 in the uk. https://slrpnk.net/post/6418235