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This is absolutely right. It feels like three 50/50 decisions all needing to be heads is unlikely. But it's not that because the goal was given three 50/50 decisions that aren't clear is a goal. If it wasn't given a goal you'd need three clear over rules (which wouldn't happen). It's an unconscious bias that if three close calls go one way it's unfair or wrong. But unclear means goal due to the original call.