this post was submitted on 06 Oct 2023
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I am a humble European who never cared too much about politics too much, so I don’t really know what this is about. Could someone please explain it to me?
Long story short, there are groups that blame the US and the EU for 'provoking' Russia into invading Ukraine.
Thanks. Is it about the NATO base that NATO wanted to build in Ukraine? If that’s the case I can see why Russia would have felt threatened by it and decided to invade (I’m not justifying it), but I’m sure it’s more complicated than this…?
Edit: I’m not sure why I’m getting downvoted. I am uninformed, and since that is all I knew I asked in the first place…
Ukraine has been trying to get into NATO for years, earnestly ever since Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014. For some reason (/s) having a big chunk of their land literally conquered has made them quite eager to get security assurances from more powerful countries.
But NATO had little interest in any immediate expansion of the organization to include Ukraine before the invasion, despite the pleas of the Ukrainian government. We considered that it would have increased tensions between us and Russia, that the Ukrainian military needed too much work in the short-term, and that Russia couldn't possibly be insane enough to try to invade Ukraine a second time.
How wrong we were.
Yeah, that’s the gist of it except I didn’t know we didn’t really care too much about expanding there militarily.
In any case, what exactly is NATO supposed to do if a country with a bad neighbor wants to join? After said neighbor already attacked it? Bruh.
Well, a country can only join NATO if ALL members of NATO agree to let the country in. So there's not much chance of a country already at war being accepted.
Funny enough, NATO was kind of lethargic before the war. A lot of NATO countries didn't take it seriously. It was hard to see it as anything but a relic of the Cold War. After all, it wasn't like Russia was going to start invading its neighbors again!
God. What a weird time we live in.
Honestly I was deeply convinced that the tactic of economically binding Russia to the EU via trade of resources (for example natural gas) and investments would absolutely make a war or even sanctions between the european NATO-members and Russia too costly for Russia to do anything stupid. There was way to much money in the balance for any outbreak of a war in Europe, neither the EU nor the Russians could afford it... or so I thought.
Turns our Russia will gladly shoot itself in the foot if they believe that they can absorb the breadbasket of Europe in the process. The geostrategic importance of Ukrainian Wheat was absolutely underestimated and the geostrategic importance of western markets to Russia was clearly overestimated.
I feel like shit for being this wrong, Russias neighbours warned us about this shit and the bigger western and central european countries did not listen.
Nah, man, it's absolutely a rational position to have taken. Don't feel too bad. The issue is, as we've all forcibly learned, is the Iron Law of Institutions - Russia doesn't do what it's in Russia's best interests. Russia does what is in Russian decisionmakers' best interests. And Putin's best interests include imperial revivalism and war fervor to prop up his corrupt regime.
Hey man, did I sound like a Russian shill or something in my initial comments?
No, but I do understand why people were quick to jump on you. Not your fault, mind you, it's just that this is a pretty high-tension period, and often, understandably, people jump to the worst conclusion due to Russian trolls poisoning the well, so to speak.
You play the "I'm just an ignorant person" character whilst spouting pro-Russia propaganda as if everybody else is an idiot.
This is indicated by how in your words "Ukraine joining NATO" is "an understandable reason for Russia to invade" and yet Russia invading Ukraine in 2014 is not an understandable reason for Ukraine to merelly join NATO - not only is the threat level of "having NATO next door" completelly different from "having a bigger nation next door that already invaded us" not even in the same universe as justifications for action with regards to your next door neightbour go, but actions themselves are hugelly different in terms of impact and even principle:
Or to put things in perpective, you've been spouting all about how you "understand" the reason a murderer gave for murdering his neighbour, which is that "the other guy wanted to invite some friends over to his home".
Dude, what the fuck are you talking about? I never said "Ukraine joining NATO", I said "NATO base that NATO wanted to build in Ukraine". I never said "an understandable reason for Russia to invade", I said "I can see why" (i.e., if what I heard was true, I could see why it would be a perfect excuse for invasion).
"not even in the same universe as justifications for action with regards to your next door neightbour go" yeah? No shit did you miss me saying "(I’m not justifying it)"?
I don't even disagree, you can see it from my answer to PugJesus message in this same thread.
I'm not "spouting propaganda" you tool, what I wrote is what I heard from people around me at the beginning of the conflict, and I admit I took it for true. Turns out, as PugJesus said below, I was not informed correctly. I even added "but I’m sure it’s more complicated than this" to make it clear I was not informed sufficiently.
Hell this whole thread started with me saying I’m not informed, what else do you want? Asshole.
Calm your tits and don't "quote" people when you're not actually quoting them. You're doing your cause a disservice, and you just sound crazy.
You are getting downvoted for actually thinking. Don’t do that. Just follow the company line.