this post was submitted on 06 Oct 2023
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Honestly I was deeply convinced that the tactic of economically binding Russia to the EU via trade of resources (for example natural gas) and investments would absolutely make a war or even sanctions between the european NATO-members and Russia too costly for Russia to do anything stupid. There was way to much money in the balance for any outbreak of a war in Europe, neither the EU nor the Russians could afford it... or so I thought.
Turns our Russia will gladly shoot itself in the foot if they believe that they can absorb the breadbasket of Europe in the process. The geostrategic importance of Ukrainian Wheat was absolutely underestimated and the geostrategic importance of western markets to Russia was clearly overestimated.
I feel like shit for being this wrong, Russias neighbours warned us about this shit and the bigger western and central european countries did not listen.
Nah, man, it's absolutely a rational position to have taken. Don't feel too bad. The issue is, as we've all forcibly learned, is the Iron Law of Institutions - Russia doesn't do what it's in Russia's best interests. Russia does what is in Russian decisionmakers' best interests. And Putin's best interests include imperial revivalism and war fervor to prop up his corrupt regime.