this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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My data is from AP https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-gender-gap-votecast-05672b6426cb5965c446ae2871d97eaf
I have no idea what you mean by "20% swing in gender." There's an 8% gap between men and women supporting Trump, and the AP said: "the gender voting gap was unremarkable by recent historical standards."
Also, AP reported that Biden had 55% of the women vote, meaning that the gender gap today is narrower than the 2020 election.
"Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was somewhat narrower than President Joe Biden’s in 2020, according to the survey. In 2020, VoteCast showed Biden won 55% of women"
The swing is determined by adding the difference from both sexes.
55-42=13% more men voted for Trump than Harris
53-45=8% more women voted for Harris than Trump
13+8=21% swing from men to women
Just to explain why people are confused:
If it were 100% of men voting Trump, and 100% of women voting Harris, your math would give a 200% swing, so you're essentially double counting. Divide by 2 to get the actual swing %.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)
You’re right. My mistake. Thanks for the link!