this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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Your numbers are incorrect.
Men: Harris 42%, Trump 55%
Women: Harris 53%, Trump 45%
It was a 20% swing in gender.
Black people are a large exception to the gender demographics. Black men voted 77% for Harris, and Black women 91%. It’s possible the comments you’re seeing about men are intended to be directed at white men who influenced the results over every other sex and race with 60% support for Trump and 34% of the total vote.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls
And since everyone here sucks at maths:
Out of every 100 men, 42 voted Harris, 55 trump, so that's about 30% more Trump voters than Harris voters (or, for every 100 Harris voters, there are 130 Trump voters)
Out of every 100 women, 53 voted Harris, 45 Trump, so that's 15% fewer trump voters than Harris voters (or, for every 100 Harris voters, there are 85 trump voters.)
So men voted for trump at 130/85~53% higher rates than women. Or, for every 100 female trump voters, there are 153 male Trump voters (assuming the number of male and voters is equal) meaning women make up roughly 40% of his voter base.
My data is from AP https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-gender-gap-votecast-05672b6426cb5965c446ae2871d97eaf
I have no idea what you mean by "20% swing in gender." There's an 8% gap between men and women supporting Trump, and the AP said: "the gender voting gap was unremarkable by recent historical standards."
Also, AP reported that Biden had 55% of the women vote, meaning that the gender gap today is narrower than the 2020 election.
"Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was somewhat narrower than President Joe Biden’s in 2020, according to the survey. In 2020, VoteCast showed Biden won 55% of women"
The swing is determined by adding the difference from both sexes.
55-42=13% more men voted for Trump than Harris
53-45=8% more women voted for Harris than Trump
13+8=21% swing from men to women
Just to explain why people are confused:
If it were 100% of men voting Trump, and 100% of women voting Harris, your math would give a 200% swing, so you're essentially double counting. Divide by 2 to get the actual swing %.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)
You’re right. My mistake. Thanks for the link!