HandwovenConsensus

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[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 4 points 1 week ago

I feel like there must be a layer to this joke I'm not getting.

Like, who is this targeted at? People who overestimate the sophistication of their city? Surely there must be more to it than that.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 6 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

Everett is at least a minor toon force user, so normal power scaling doesn't apply. He can beat anyone or be beaten by anyone depending on which is funnier.

Mrs. True can usually overpower him because he's usually being a jerk to her, but when she's in the wrong she's usually cowed by him.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 2 points 1 month ago

Well, I only know how it tends to work in China, where the traditional calendar is used for cultural events such as festivals, while the Gregorian calendar is used for just about everything else, including domestic business. I assumed it's the same in most modern cultures with a different traditional calendar, but maybe I'm wrong.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 2 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Is it? I know some cultures have a traditional lunar calendar, but I didn't know there were many that didn't also use the Gregorian calendar for business.

Which cultures have the seven day week without the solar year?

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 5 points 2 months ago (2 children)

The plummeting should take care of itself from that point. You might need assistance with the rotation though.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 1 points 2 months ago

Not quite the same, since in my scenario the player loses everything after a loss while in the St. Petersburg Paradox it seems they keep their winnings. But it does seem relevant in explaining that expected value isn't everything.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 4 points 2 months ago

I'm looking at the game as a whole. The player has a 1 in 8 chance of winning 3 rounds overall.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 1 points 2 months ago

But the odds of the player managing to do so are proportionate. In theory, if 8 players each decide to go for three rounds, one of them will win, but the losings from the other 7 will pay for that player's winnings.

You're right that the house is performing a Martingale strategy. That's a good insight. That may actually be the source of the house advantage. The scenario is ideal for a Martingale strategy to work.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 2 points 2 months ago

Well, they have to start over with a $1 bet.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

I don't know if that applies to this scenario. In this game, the player is always in the lead until they aren't, but I don't see how that works in their favor.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 3 points 2 months ago

You're saying that the player pays a dollar each time they decide to "double-or-nothing"? I was thinking they'd only be risking the dollar they bet to start the game.

That change in the ruleset would definitely tilt the odds in the house's favor.

[–] HandwovenConsensus@lemm.ee 5 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Right, and as the chain continues, the probability of the player maintaining their streak becomes infinitesimal. But the potential payout scales at the same rate.

If the player goes for 3 rounds, they only have a 1/8 chance of winning... but they'll get 8 times their initial bet. So it's technically a fair game, right?

 

The idea is that if the coin flip goes in the player's favor, they win double their bet. After winning, they can either collect their winnings, or risk them all on another coin flip to have a chance at doubling them. The initial bet is fixed at, let's say $1.

Mathematically, this seems like a fair game. The expected value of each individual round is zero for both house and player.

Intuitively, though, I can't shake the notion that the player will tend to keep flipping until they lose. In theory, it isn't the wrong decision to keep flipping since the expected value of the flip doesn't change, but it feels like it is.

Any insight?

 

I just kind of wonder with how casually people express these thoughts. It's a little disturbing how normalized it is to entertain such notions, given how other types of fantasies are very stigmatized.

Like when discussing char.ai, acting out sexual or romantic fantasies is something a lot of people do, but it's considered embarrassing. While people freely discuss violent roleplays without any shame.

And then there's the cliche of fantasizing about killing one's boss or coworkers.

Are these really common thoughts for mentally sound people to have?

 

I've never heard of these candidates, they have no party affiliation, and there's almost no information about them online that I can find.

Are those positions just for people who work closely with those departments to vote on?

 

A lot of times, when people discuss the phenomenon of employers ending work-from-home and try to make their employees come back to the office, people say that the motivation is to raise real estate prices.

I don't follow the logic at all. How would doing this benefit an employer in any way?

 

I'm not a parent, but going by pop culture, it seems like literally every child has the same fears.

In pre-modern times, I imagine that they'd be sleeping in the same room as the parents, but if modern notions of privacy don't permit that, seems we could at least design an enclosed capsule or something.

 

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