Vote every time. Polls mean nothing. Vote.
this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2023
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Yep. Polls are getting less reliable anyway, because so many of them rely on landlines, and some segments of the population are less likely to respond to surveys than others.
Which is telling, because the land line polls tend to over inflate Conservative voices, and it still has Trump losing in a landslide.
Also, national polls mean nothing. We don't have a national election.
Trump lost in 2016 by 2.1%, he became President by winning in WI, MI and PA. 2 states Clinton failed to campaign in and a 3rd she alienated.
The total number of votes that elected Trump were just 22,748 in WI, 10,704 in MI and 44,292 in PA.
77,744 people made Trump a President. The rest of us knew better.
I agree except for that last point
77,744 people made Trump a President. The rest of us knew better.
Sorry but that's not how math works. 63 million people made trump president, and only 66 million of us knew better. That huge number of trump voters is the horrible reality of American politics weve had to come to terms with. Luckily some of the trump supporters learned from their mistake, but there's still millions of them out there, not <100k
Millions out there, countered by millions of Democratic voters, and over votes on both sides in states like Texas and California.
It was the 77K in those three states that threw it to Trump, and note, in 2020, Biden did not repeat Clinton's mistake.
Yeah I get that, but what I'm saying is it's not like the rest of the US knew better than that 77k figure. 77k is just the difference in votes, it doesn't represent the only 77k people that did wrong
Literally nobody wants conservative garbage in office. The party of liars and frauds always defanging enforcement of laws and regulations and everyone knows because we have been talking about it since that Liar War George WMD Bush and housing crash that he did.
Every chance we had at reigning in the psychopathic elites was thwarted by the Conservatives ONLY.
The white dudes sold half of my generation to a liar war and the other half to crippling debt. So we voted in a black man and they revolted by selling out to foreign enemies to steal an election because they got caught stealing 2000 with the Brooks Brothers Riot.
The party of garbage is being taken out and the midterms show it. Polls are garbage and we don’t answer them because we want them to look like assholes like we did during the mid terms AND 2024.
What’s their plan? Ruin our lines of communication from now until 2024 by buying and destroying media in a way that looks like incompetence.
They might go and get crazy and attack the country again OR start pretending they’re Democrats - they already do.
Look at Ron ShitSandwich. Total incompetent shit bag. And he’s only 44. Plenty of time to get worse.
And then you woke up
The only reason conservatives win anything is because of lines on a fucking map. No one likes that shit
Both parties are gerrymandering as much as they can get away with. If you meant the electoral college that's part of being a federation of states, sorry. Changing the rules to benefit your team is not exactly fair either, right?
Fuck the teams. What's my team? I'm an independent. I've never once been registered in a party in my decades of voting. Knock off the team bullshit. It's how idiots think
It would be nice if 40-45% of the country didn't try to force the other 60% to live by their rules.
Would be nice if the majority doesn't force the minority to live by their rules either.
So instead you allow a crazy ass minority most people don't agree with to do the same thing. How convenient for you.
No, that's a straight up lie. Multiple blue states have independent commissions that draw the maps, meanwhile red states refuse to allow even that.
I'm sick of fascists trying to gaslight people into believing that everyone is the same as they are. You're a blatant liar.
You're delusional
If the number of electors was distributed in a way that didn't give disproportional representation to states with very small populations, that would be great. Also, the notion that the US is truly a federation of independent states hasn't been accurate for at least 200 years.
It's a bit disproportional for a few states but then again, you can say the votes of people in Wyoming are worth more relatively speaking but it's still just 3 electors in the end. No one will pay much attention to them either way, unlike the more populous states which can swing elections.
unlike the more populous states which can swing elections.
You say that like it's a bad thing for people to be in charge rather than arbitrary lines drawn on maps.
I'm saying they don't matter with their 3 votes, I don't think the people there feel very important in deciding the presidential election.
Biden has no chance, his rapidly progressing dementia will make him unelectable. Frankly, I cannot believe dems will let him run again.
As much as people like you claim it, there's no actual evidence that Biden has dementia. And Trump is only three years younger than him if it's just about age.
There's no "proof" but you can see from his public speeches that he's losing it. Trump at least shows mental clarity although he's quite old as well.
Yeah, I hate to break this to ya, but if you've "seen" Biden's public speeches from twenty years ago, you'd see he still had a speech impediment - one he's had his entire life and spent a lot of work to control. As someone else who has trouble speaking in public, props to him for rising above it.
And the sad part? People are literally mocking his speech impediment to make it seem like he has dementia when they know the truth - that's like making fun of someone for being stuck in a wheelchair. But once again, it shows the class of the people we're dealing with.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/politics/joe-biden-stutter/index.html
But let me guess, mocking an orange clown for the makeup they choose to smear on daily would be considered "crossing the line" to you, right?
It's not a speech impediment, it's him clearly forgetting the most basic things. Often he can't even read from the teleprompter properly, gets lost in public venues, keeps tripping over. I feel sorry for him, it's elder abuse what he's going through.
And I've got news for you, Biden is smearing the same orange paint on himself as Trump is, it's what they do to look less gray and old.
"The orange man is back"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4VHLKmstPI
Mental clarity! Lol. You've never heard the guy speak before?
You can see in his eyes that he knows where he is, what he's being asked, and is thinking up a bullshit answer. No signs of dementia whatsoever.
Neither of them have dementia.
Parroting catch phrases from fox bobbleheads just makes you sound stupid.
We will see.
this poll queried 900 voters. 900 people who are the type of people to respond to political polls
for reference, almost 155 million people voted in 2020
so this poll was conducted with less than 0.0006% of the voting population of 2020, and the group that responded is a particular (and biased) group. edit: for additional reference, biden received 7 million more votes than trump did in 2020, which is roughly 7,800 times more voters than were polled for this article.
ignore this completely
go fucking vote
in fact tell the next 10 people you talk to to vote as well
What sample size do ypu think would be appropriate?
in the 2016 election, tens of thousands of people were reached for some polls, and these polls all declared total victory for Clinton
so i cant answer your question directly, but i do know that one single poll of 900 people aint it
But under what factual basis are you discarding a 900 person sample size?
I dont remember polls insisting Clinton would win, I remember dumb people saying thats what polls said, and your source makes me not feel shifted in that opinion.
A 3% margin on a poll in no way is declaring total victory to anybody.
Many of the polls you just shared have a 1% difference in support rate.
So you think a 1% better polling rate is " declared total victory for Clinton" but feel confident in discarding a 900 person sample?
If there was 10k people in the polls ypu are referencing, you are using 900 people as proof of absolute victory lol.
i dont know what point of mine youre arguing against
i dont trust political polls in general, and as far as political polls go this one is on the lower end. all i did was make comparisons to other (larger) polls that did not manage to capture the true distribution of voter intent
Did you seriously make claims about poll data without checking your source?
i dont know what you're talking about.
The part of these polls that none of these publications talk about is that 40% of voters still support this shitbag, a liar, grifter, and traitor to this country.
The GOP saw the nonreaction to an open attempt of sedition and they have not forgotten it.
For reference, one of the best ways to track US polls is here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
That's a terrible tracking tool, except for all of the others.
What's a better tool?
538
Doesn't 538 have an editorial slant? I was talking about a site that just reports poll results from all the polls and takes an average. I couldn't find that aggregate analysis and daily poll reporting on 538.
Swoosh?
I can't find this when I Google it, it only pops up Nike stuff. Do you have a link?