this post was submitted on 18 Dec 2023
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The economy’s strength and stability — defying many of the most optimistic predictions — represents a remarkable development after seemingly endless crises

As 2023 winds to a close, Powell and his colleagues are far from declaring victory on inflation. They routinely caution that their actions could be thwarted by any number of threats, from war in the Middle East to China’s economic slowdown. Americans are upset about high costs for rent, groceries and other basics, which aren’t going back to pre-pandemic levels. The White House, too, is quick to emphasize that much work remains.

Yet the economy is ending the year in a remarkably better position than almost anyone on Wall Street or in mainstream economics predicted, having bested just about all expectations time and again. Inflation has dropped to 3.1 percent, from a peak of 9.1. The unemployment rate is at a hot 3.7 percent, and the economy grew at a healthy clip in the most recent quarter. The Fed is probably finished hiking interest rates and is eyeing cuts next year. Financial markets are at or near all-time highs, and the S&P 500 could hit a new record this week, too.

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[–] TheAlbatross@lemmy.blahaj.zone 82 points 9 months ago (4 children)

Yo ngl I cannot care one iota about the S&P 500 when food costs nearly double what it did before the pandemic and rents are skyrocketing.

[–] tburkhol@lemmy.world 49 points 9 months ago (3 children)

Where I am, the $5 eggs are back down to $1.80, and the $6 milk is $2.89. Feels the same as before-times.

It's hard to find restaurant lunch under $15, which is around 50% more than 2019, and even the gyro counter added a default tip when they stopped accepting cash. That's sad, but I cook more now.

[–] June@lemm.ee 10 points 9 months ago (1 children)

2 years ago yogurt was 40 cents, today it’s 80. Bacon was $3 a pound, today the cheapest is $4.50 unless it’s on sale. Frozen pizzas were $4, $5 on the top end, now they’re $6-$15… for a frozen pizza. Ramen was 20 cents, today it’s 55. String cheese was $4, today it’s $7. A small bag of shredded cheese was $4, now it’s $8. Cereal was $3, today it’s $5 and you get less. Have you seen how expensive a bag or Doritos is? A small bag costs more than what a party size bag used to cost, and that’s true for all chips.

I have dozens of items that are out of reach today that were common fare 3 years ago. Milk and eggs have come back down, yes, but not the rest of it.

[–] tburkhol@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago

I guess my response is that most of what you've listed are significantly-to-highly processed foods, and I lump them in the same bucket as 'restaurants.' To me, it's not that the food has gotten expensive, so much as corporate structures are 'extracting more value.' And I do realize that a lot of people are in situations where those processed foods are their only practical options. I just think that General Mills, PepsiCo, and Blackstone deserve the blame and hate, more than 'the economy.'

BTW, I would love me some $4.50/pound bacon. I don't remember it less than $6/12 oz in the last 5 years, except occasionally on sale. I used to see fairly regular $1/pound pork shoulder sales, and I haven't seen that under $1.80 in a while, so there definitely are basic foods with inflated prices. My personal experience is that I still get out of the grocery store for the same $40 I was spending in 2018, although I have also given up chips and started making my own yogurt. Switched from beef to chicken, pork and beans, although that's more for carbon reasons than cost.

[–] alvvayson@lemmy.world 9 points 9 months ago

Here from Europe, a similar situation.

Some things are still expensive, but a lot of things have gotten better.

Moreover, salaries did increase, so I can't complain too much.

We are extremely fortunate to have so easily beaten this round of inflation.

[–] numberfour002@lemmy.world 4 points 9 months ago

It's mostly the same here.

Grocery prices have definitely gone up overall in my part of the world, but outside of outliers (or outright liars), prices aren't double. But lots of people around here will claim their grocery bill is double what it was before covid. In general, I'm not willing to say any specific person's "twice as much" isn't true, I don't know their circumstances, but my experience and pretty much all the reports I've seen don't bear that out (again for my part of the world).

The egg thing was a prime example. People were going around saying "eggs are $10 now" but then when I'd look at the local grocers, it was only the premium brands' free range, organic, woman-owned, holistic, fair-trade type eggs that were anywhere close to that -- and it was always the type of person that you know never bought those types of eggs to begin with.

I have seen a lot of convenience and luxury grocery items that I used to buy have gone up around 50% or gone down the shrinkflation route. And for sure, there's been an uptick in temporary shortages and price spikes.

Restaurants around here are also like you mentioned. Prices have really gone up there. I don't eat fast food often, but a month ago I was traveling and decided to get fast food breakfast at one of my old favorites. A biscuit and a drink used to cost around $3, now it's nearly $8. Last year, I had a craving for Wendy's and it was similar, the food that used to cost me just over $4 back in the day is now a bit more than $11. But then again, eating out is a luxury in pretty close to all circumstances.

[–] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 22 points 9 months ago (8 children)

I feel you, but there's not much Biden can do about either thing.

Unfortunately, he will get the blame for it anyway.

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[–] silence7@slrpnk.net 16 points 9 months ago

It's not just the stock market. There's a wide range of metrics which are showing an improvement, and they're comparing with what didn't happen, which was a recession.

What hasn't happened is a rollback of the Reagan-era change in distribution of wealth and income. That requires getting congress to act.

[–] YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago (1 children)

That falls on your local economy and state and local elected officials. Rent is always due to local officials and how the zone the city. Local and State Corporate taxes also play a role in higher prices. If I were you, I'd check the local city council schedule and speak on those concerns.

[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world 8 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Plus, counterintuitively, rent is starting to fall in many major metro areas because we're finally seeing a notable uptick in inventory. The price of a dozen eggs is back in the neighborhood of where it was pre-Covid, and the price of a gallon of gas has wiped away almost all of its 2023 gains and is now back to roughly what it was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Not saying people across the board aren't struggling since the pandemic, because I'm sure they still feel it in a very real way, but prices are very obviously stabilizing across the board and the S&P is obviously responding to really solid underlying trends.

[–] willis936@lemmy.world 26 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Cool. Now lower interest rates so I can at least dream about the prospect of owning a house again.

[–] ComradeKhoumrag@infosec.pub -2 points 9 months ago

Oh no, they're only going to lower interest rates when the economy takes a shit again

[–] Transporter_Room_3@startrek.website 22 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I can't pay my bills and I'm eating peanut butter sandwiches so I don't starve.

Yay, we avoided recession.

[–] SCB@lemmy.world -4 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

And some day you'll be out of college. Personal anecdotes are not meaningful data

[–] Transporter_Room_3@startrek.website 2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I'm in my 30s, so take that "sharp wit" and smug superiority and slice your anus with it.

[–] SCB@lemmy.world -4 points 9 months ago

By your 30s you should have already heard that personal anecdotes are not data because you were an adult in 2016.

I had no reason to assume you were not in college.

[–] originalucifer@moist.catsweat.com 22 points 9 months ago (2 children)

that way out: pretend the stock market is the only thing that matters.

fuck these people

[–] silence7@slrpnk.net 9 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

No, they're looking at a broad set of measures of economic well-being. The stock market is only one metric.

What they've done is pretty amazing, even if it doesn't roll back the Reagan redistribution in favor of the wealthy, which would require congressional action.

[–] Wermhatswormhat@lemmy.world -3 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Who tf is downvoting you? You’re exactly right, to them the only thing that matters is the market, and we’re doing fine because the market is still breaking records.

a large contingent of internet facing humans have invested in one way or another in the market. the biggest swindle in history was when companies somehow pushed their entire retirement portfolios to this external hunk of lying shit.

tax every trade. you want to call it a market, lets fucking tax it like one. no 'dark markets', no secret trading.. 100% in public and taxing every fucking trade.

whats that? it would kill all the big players? ya dont say...

[–] YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world 9 points 9 months ago (1 children)

It might take another six months before it is felt across the board, but prices are noticeably lower than last year in Colorado.

That doesn't mean your wages are high enough for you to afford the lifestyle you want.

[–] Naja_Kaouthia@lemmy.world 1 points 9 months ago (1 children)

For a while gas in COS was absolutely bananaballs. It’s come down rather nicely again. Filling my Impreza was painful there for a minute.

[–] YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world 4 points 9 months ago

Happy I can drive into CostCo without wait 15 minutes for the line for gas to stop blocking the entrance at the Barnes location. It was $2.19 this morning. It was $3.42 last year at this time ($5.41 in July 2022)

[–] phoneymouse@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago

I mean - there are no guarantees. Everyone claiming we are out of the woods, but if inflation stays above 3% the fed isn’t going to lower rates very fast. We could see a recession hit.

[–] thisorthatorwhatever@lemmy.world -2 points 9 months ago

It's all about gas prices, nothing more.

[–] itsonlygeorge@reddthat.com -2 points 9 months ago

Printing trillions of dollars isn’t a solution. The only reason it works is because we are the reserve currency of the world still because of oil sales. Once that changes, we are fucked.

[–] Wermhatswormhat@lemmy.world -4 points 9 months ago (3 children)

So the inflated price should come down right? …right…

Damn when a pound of onions cost $2.50 I don’t really call this progress or “Finding a way out”

[–] silence7@slrpnk.net 18 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (13 children)

Ending inflation doesn't mean that prices come down. It means that they stop rising. (or, more realistically, go back to rising at 2% to 3% per year)

Deflation is when prices drop. It's bad; what happens is that it's more valuable to hold onto cash than to invest it in starting or expanding a business, so the economy as a whole craters like the US did in the Great Depression. You probably don't want that.

[–] MrPoopbutt@lemmy.world 1 points 9 months ago

That assumes what we are experiencing is inflation. Inflation is part of the equation, but another big part is just corporations are pushing up prices and making record profits. That part can result in prices going down without causing issues.

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[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 5 points 9 months ago

This is why I shop at restaurant supply stores. 10 lbs. of onions for $5

[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world 3 points 9 months ago (2 children)

At our local Wegmans a lb of onions is $0.90, $1.73, or $2.05, depending on if you want yellow, sweet, or red. It's the exact same price at all their stores elsewhere in the US. White onions are $1.49/lb at other major grocery stores. White and yellow onions are being reported at $1.79 and $1.29 per pound, retail. Where in the heck are you paying $2.50/lb?

[–] Tronn4@lemmy.world 2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

This guy's onions. Are you Shrek? 😅

[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 2 points 9 months ago

No, but I am, since I'm buying them by the 10 lb. sack.

[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 0 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Probably Whole ~~Paycheck~~ Foods

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