this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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Leading scientists worldwide delivered a striking dose of reality to the United Nations on Sunday: it’s “becoming inevitable” that countries will miss the ambitious target they set eight years ago for limiting the warming of the Earth.

The ominous estimate points to the growing likelihood that global warming will shoot past 1.5 degrees Celsius before the end of this century, inflicting what scientists describe as an overwhelming toll from intensifying storms, drought and heat on people and the economy. It also injects an urgent message into global climate talks in Dubai, where the debate over ramping down fossil fuels is set to flare over the next two weeks.

Surpassing the temperature threshold — even temporarily — would be a major blow to the international Paris climate agreement from 2015, which called for nations to keep global temperatures well within 2 degrees Celsius of their preindustrial levels, and within 1.5 degrees if at all possible. The findings come amid climate talks that for the first time are focused on taking stock of whether almost 200 nations are meeting that goal. Early indications offer a bleak picture.

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[–] NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world 66 points 11 months ago (6 children)

Looking forward to the water wars when we can all ask ourselves, was it worth it.

[–] FartsWithAnAccent@lemmy.world 63 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

It'll depend on who you ask: The obscenely wealthy will still say yes and the people they've been fucking over forever will probably disagree except perhaps about 39% of the normal population which is apparently too stupid to question or think critically about literally anything.

[–] Burn_The_Right@lemmy.world 31 points 11 months ago

Yew hav bin purminintly band frum c/Conservative

[–] xmunk@sh.itjust.works 11 points 11 months ago (1 children)

39 percent? You're quite the optimist.

[–] FartsWithAnAccent@lemmy.world 14 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It was a joke about the latest brand of fascism that's been popping up in the US over the last decade or so, but I probably should've said "at least 39%".

[–] Duamerthrax@lemmy.world 8 points 11 months ago

God, I know too many old liberals who still treat the economy as the end goal.

[–] anlumo@lemmy.world 18 points 11 months ago (1 children)

We brought value to the shareholders!

[–] fluxion@lemmy.world 0 points 11 months ago
[–] fluxion@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago

Exxon exec: Yes, yes it was worth it.

[–] interceder270@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Gonna be moving back to tribal society.

It was a good run (for the ruling class), but the natives win in the end. That's what sustainability is all about.

[–] YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (3 children)

The United States and China will be the biggest winners of climate change. The nation's around the equator will be the biggest losers.

[–] Peetipablo@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Don’t be so sure. We in the US are already struggling with refugees at our border; that problem will intensify exponentially as warming increases.

[–] P1r4nha@feddit.de 14 points 11 months ago (3 children)

Tell me why this will not end in a massacre? The Western nations are already electing fascist leaders with a minor refugee crisis. When the situation worsens, borders will be closed, people will be shot or otherwise "taken care of". I wish it weren't so, but with our history and current trajectory, why is it not going to end like that?

[–] murmelade@lemmy.ml 6 points 11 months ago (2 children)

The "better-off nations" are about to face wave after wave of climate refugees that will make recent war refugee crises look like casual tourism. Y'all think they will be welcomed by food and shelter or barbed wire and watchtowers?

[–] P1r4nha@feddit.de 4 points 11 months ago

Exactly my point. And it's not going to be easypeasy in the better off nations either. Just look at what a ship accident in the Suez canal did to European goods. What China's covid problems did to global availability of goods. We had to worry about food problems because of the war in Ukraine. Our economy is global and fragile, because there are no redundancies.

The Western world will suffer as well, even if they close all borders and manage to keep people out of it. Why would the rest of the world produce for us if they have other problems to worry about?

[–] JeffKerman1999@sopuli.xyz 3 points 11 months ago

There's like 5 billions of people not living in Europe or in the good parts of China. I guess there's going to be a lot of space in the currently frozen lands of Siberia

[–] Peetipablo@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago

I think there’s a pretty good chance you’re right.

[–] Tankton@lemm.ee -1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Devils advocate here, but wouldnt that be the best case scenario for the planet?

[–] Xoronil@feddit.de 2 points 11 months ago

The planet doesn't care. It doesn't matter at which level the final temperature sits, the planet will keep on rotating around the sun.

The question is how WE want to live.

[–] YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world 0 points 11 months ago (1 children)

The border issue will increase to the point the Conservatives will rule no one can come in. They will permanently close the U.S. Land Border.

[–] Peetipablo@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Closed borders hasn’t stopped determined folks. There will always be ways to get across, legal or not.

[–] jaybone@lemmy.world 0 points 11 months ago

Thry just made Texas take dien their razor buoys.

[–] entropicdrift@lemmy.sdf.org 0 points 11 months ago

Russia, Canada, and Alaska will be the biggest winners

[–] Tankton@lemm.ee 0 points 11 months ago

Me in the Netherlands: blub blub blub

[–] EatYouWell@lemmy.world -2 points 11 months ago

I think the microplastics will kill us off before then.

[–] hglman@lemmy.ml 59 points 11 months ago

This year is currently at 1.4c; the last 3 months, generally the coolest months, have been near 1.7c.

[–] anlumo@lemmy.world 35 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

It’ll settle somewhere around 3° to 5°, because that’s the point where the global economy collapses irrecoverably. There’s no other way that we’re going to get out of this.

[–] KISSmyOS@lemmy.world 22 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Unless somewhere on the way to +3°C there's a tipping point that will lead to runaway heating, then all bets are off and +10°C is on the table.

[–] captainlezbian@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I think somewhere well before +10 is catastrophic deoxygenation of the oceans, so that’s fun

[–] fluxion@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago (1 children)

How much profit might one extract before getting to that point? Asking for a friend.

[–] captainlezbian@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago

None that you can take with you, and not enough for food, but enough to suffocate in a bunker if your guards don’t shoot you

[–] troyunrau@lemmy.ca 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Also, at some point we've actually burnt all the oil. So there is an upper bound, unless it triggers a runaway.

[–] ricdeh@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Well you can also make organic compounds for combustion from plants or directly from the constitutive monomers, so theoretically..... we can go on after oil!

[–] troyunrau@lemmy.ca 4 points 11 months ago

Yes, but this requires energy input, so it isn't as efficient as just using that energy directly.

[–] interceder270@lemmy.world 32 points 11 months ago

I want there to be a list of all the broken promises nations have made throughout the years.

There should be a big fat percentage next to each promise that represents how often promises are kept.

"US pledges to reduce carbon emissions by X amount in 10 years! (US has a record of keeping only 5% of its long-term promises.)"

Kind of puts things into perspective for everyone.

[–] KISSmyOS@lemmy.world 25 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

The ominous estimate points to the growing likelihood that global warming will shoot past 1.5 degrees Celsius before the end of this century

Current estimate points to reaching +1.5 this year.

[–] frezik@midwest.social 8 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

For one year, and there's a debate going on in climate science because of how much you can extrapolate for a single year. The +1.5C they're talking about would be sustained for the long run.

[–] KISSmyOS@lemmy.world 15 points 11 months ago (2 children)

If the average drops back down to +0.9°C or below in 2024, I'll eat my hat.

[–] Risk@feddit.uk 18 points 11 months ago

You'll probably have to eat it any way, because of the famine.

Was gunna put /s but then I started to question myself.

[–] Marin_Rider@aussie.zone 3 points 11 months ago

its possible. our southern summer is lining up to be not as warm as initially expected so there's a chance

[–] unreasonabro@lemmy.world 17 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Surprising, since not a fucking thing has actually been done.

No, don't correct me. I'm insulting the measures you're describing. That was the point. We deserve to die, as a species, given the shameful so-called response we have made to this existential threat. If it had been aliens we would have rolled over like a bitch. We coulda done something, but it looks like we actually are just a bunch of monkey-ass retards with nothing better to do than pretend money is important. We need a jihad against all religions and a cultural purge of capitalism, and hey, we're gonna get it, pretty soon too, in the form of "too late you're fucked".

[–] kool_newt@lemm.ee 17 points 11 months ago

(butterfly meme) Is this progress?

[–] veganpizza69@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago