No Stupid Questions

I honestly think Iran is too defanged to make a difference with escalation. Israel flexed their capability heavily and eliminated part of Iran's C&C and a lot of their military and nuclear assets in one go, and they're still continuing with strikes for any mop up.

It's a win-win situation for them because they've got the US to defend them and they can go almost full force on whatever they deem a threat.

It might technically backfire for Netanyahu if Iran fails to mount any serious counteroffensive, at which point he won't have any escalation path to stay in power, but it's still a big win for Israel's interests.

Also not related to the question, but this proves HTS in Syria is just another CIA project that will follow Washington's demands no questions asked since they clearly allowed Israel to operate within their airspace.

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

History's like that too. People took their best guesses, but nobody knew for sure.

It really depends on how far both sides are willing to escalate.

Israel appears to be emboldened for a variety of reasons. Nobody is stopping their genocide. Hezbollah is on its back foot. Netanyahu sees political gain in a war with Iran. Trump is reckless enough to not reign Israel in.

However, Israel cannot wage all out war without the backing of the US. Iran knows this which is why I think their responses to past Israeli attacks have been fairly measured. These attacks are a serious escalation though and it’s hard to say how Iran may decide to respond.

If they seriously think the US is ready to back Israel in an all out war then we’re going to face consequences globally. Iran has the capacity to obliterate much of the middle east’s oil infrastructure, which the US is heavily invested in. That could cause energy prices to spike and create all kinds of downstream havoc for the global economy.

There will be no fallout from it. Israel has too many ties to Europe and Americans for Iran to do anything about it.

One day I hope Israel will be held accountable for their actions but that day will not be until after we all are dead.

Well, it could be really bad, or it might only be a little bit bad.

Israel has nuclear weapons, Iran has been trying to develop nuclear weapons and probably has them, and both sides believe God is on their side.

Honestly theres a path to WW3 here. But it could not be that serious. It would be interesting to see how the US cozies up to Russia while its ally is attacking their ally Iran.

Potentially very bad, but probably not. Iran has previously vowed to retaliate with full force against any attack, including 'targeting all US military bases "within our reach".' If they launch attacks at Israel that will escalate, but if they make good on that last part it could get very bad very quick.

But right now i have no way to gauge how serious Iran was about those claims or if it intends to make good on them, so the ball's in their court.

Edit: I just read that according to Germany's foreign office Iran is 'responding with hundreds of drone attacks on Israel.', so some escalation seems likely.

Worst case, world war three. If enough other countries back Iran, they might retaliate in a way that triggers something like the nato treaty and you get some combination of countries compelled to do something, which could set off a series of conflicts that might spread.

More likely, some skirmishes and back and forth attacks happen, but nobody outside the region becomes involved directly.

Or, Iran could just posture and use it as political leverage to strengthen their position with allies and the various blocs around the world.

Obviously, there's variants of those, and plenty of really unlikely options. But based on how iran has acted in the past and how little anyone is pressuring Israel currently, it doesn't seem like it will escalate unless something else changes

Realistically I am less worried about a proper military to military engagement and more of an asymmetrical response.

They don't need to have a nuclear program to do a dirty bomb or other similar attack on a civilian population. It doesn't even have to be an official Iranian response directly, there are enough proxies around there that could fuck shit up for a lot of people.

As for the likelihood of this, its a crapshoot. Someone with more connections or experience can tell you that.

I dont think we know yet and that uncertainty isn't making it any better

There is literally a large land war in Europe with one side having large nuclear stoke pile...

Israel does these PR stunts every few months to distract peasants from the genocide.

Israel can't do shit about Iran, even US would not be able to invade it without having to go into war economy.

This is just a circle jerk to hit some iranian assests and earnt Israel brownie points with Zionists in the US.

Probably it will escalate for a bit and then die down again. Iran has been attacking Israel through its proxies Hezbollah and Hamas for years. More recently after Israeli strikes they have sent waves of drones and missiles toward Israel. We'll see another attack like that and then things will calm down.

I know Lindsey Graham is waiting to laugh at Gretta when she tries to go into Iran to feed whoever might be left. Maybe something like "oh I hope they know how to ride donkeys!" That's what we can expect now from those politicians.