this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2024
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politics

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Summary

The 2024 race for Montana’s Senate seat, once seen as a near-certain Republican gain, has tightened unexpectedly, with Democratic incumbent Jon Tester showing a late polling advantage over GOP challenger Tim Sheehy.

Sheehy’s lead has diminished amid scrutiny of his story about a bullet wound he claims to have suffered during a deployment in Afghanistan. Discrepancies in his account, including conflicting explanations about a 2015 incident in Glacier National Park, have cast doubt on his credibility.

This polling shift has unsettled Republicans, with former Trump advisor Anthony Scaramucci describing their reaction as a “meltdown.”

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[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 106 points 2 weeks ago

Thank you, ladies! You are proving your power this election!

[–] EleventhHour@lemmy.world 85 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

How? After all of the hard work and death threats and fascism, you’d think the Republicans had this one in the bag!

[–] partial_accumen@lemmy.world 37 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I'm really hoping that fascists are more likely to talk to poll takers than go to the voting booth.

[–] acosmichippo@lemmy.world 20 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

why bother voting if you think it's rigged and going to storm the capital anyway?

[–] Sunshine@lemmy.ca 46 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Please vote out the republicans for how poorly they treated Zooey Zephyr.

[–] Davel23@fedia.io 37 points 2 weeks ago

I mean, vote out Republicans because they're absolute scum, but your thing works too.

[–] Gingerlegs@lemmy.world 38 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Now do Texas, and Florida, and Georgia and

[–] grue@lemmy.world 11 points 2 weeks ago

Georgia already has two Democratic Senators. You're welcome.

[–] Lets_Eat_Grandma@lemm.ee 27 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Until there is a total of 60 votes one way or another, both sides can effectively veto bills forever with a filibuster in the senate. Still, in the absence of said filibuster it's nice to be able to pass legislation through the senate.

Good to see the needle moving from the insanity that has been the last ~9 years of politics but there is so much foundational damage that simply won't build any bridges to bring the country back to it's center. Maybe if we're lucky it will lessen the extremist rhetoric especially after trump is out of the running... but i'm not holding my breath.

[–] acosmichippo@lemmy.world 30 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

50 is also big for confirming judges.

[–] empireOfLove2@lemmy.dbzer0.com 12 points 2 weeks ago

50 + having the majority means you get to avoid stupid shit like McConnell appointment blocking

[–] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 28 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Note that Harris has called for eliminating the Filibuster should dems get a trifecta

Harris says she would support ending the filibuster to bring back Roe v. Wade

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/23/nx-s1-5123955/kamala-harris-abortion-roe-v-wade-filibuster

[–] acosmichippo@lemmy.world 5 points 2 weeks ago (8 children)

honest question, are we not wary of how republicans would operate with no filibuster?

[–] CarbonIceDragon@pawb.social 25 points 2 weeks ago

Realistically, given a condition where it stood in their way, they'd probably just eliminate it themselves

[–] Feathercrown@lemmy.world 18 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

They can also just remove it if they have the majority

[–] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 17 points 2 weeks ago

They already killed it for Supreme Court nominees when it suited them. If they really wanted something they'd kill it for that

By 2017, roles had reversed — Republicans held the majority in the Senate, and President Donald Trump sat in the Oval Office.

After Senate Democrats, now in the minority, filibustered the confirmation of Judge Neil Gorsuch — Trump's first nominee to the Supreme Court — McConnell engineered his own "nuclear option."

The Republican-controlled Senate voted 52-48 to reduce the vote threshold for confirming nominees to the Supreme Court from 60 to 51, per The New York Times.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/01/fact-check-gop-ended-senate-filibuster-supreme-court-nominees/3573369001/

[–] mriguy@lemmy.world 14 points 2 weeks ago

We know exactly how they’d act, since they eliminated the filibuster for judicial nominees so they could pack the court. Holding ourselves to some standard they will immediately violate when they can get any advantage is stupid.

[–] Ioughttamow@fedia.io 12 points 2 weeks ago

Never expect them to act in good faith. They have already repeatedly trampled norms

[–] dhork@lemmy.world 10 points 2 weeks ago

Practically speaking, this election cycle is the hardest for Democrats in the Senate. There are 23 seats currently held by Democrats (and Independants organizing with them) up for reelection, vs. only 10 Republicans.

In the 2026 election, barring any additional vacancies due to retirements or deaths, there will be 13 Democrats defending seats vs. 20 Republicans. In 2028, the split is 15 - 19.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classes_of_United_States_senators

If the Democrats do keep the Senate and reform the Filibuster, then unless there is some radical change in political alignments Democrats will be favored to hold on to the Senate until at least 2030. There is a lot of work Democrats can do during those 6 years that might be impossible with the Filibuster in place, as it currently is implemented.

I would argue that keeping the Senate is just as important as winning the Presidency. Perhaps more so. If Trump wins but Democrats keep the Senate, they can use their power to ratify Cabinet officers to keep the worst of the worst appointments out. Likewise, if Harris wins but Republicans take the Senate, I doubt any of Harris's judicial appointments will be approved at all.

[–] ilinamorato@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago

It's not really restraining them at the moment.

[–] JaymesRS 1 points 2 weeks ago

Then make them own their choices. As long as they can stick with this limbo there’s plausible deniability that no one sees. Or require it to be a speaking filibuster. In Minnesota, the conservatives had control of all the levers until they “caught the car” on banning marriage equality. At a state level, that woke a bunch of complacent people up and now we have a democratic trifecta after a lot of work since then. That can happen at the federal level too and that’s what we are learning from Dobbs.

[–] krashmo@lemmy.world 18 points 2 weeks ago

Since most of you probably don't know anyone who lives in MT I will volunteer as the official Lemmy representative of the state. In the event that Tester wins this seat please send all letters of congratulations and gift baskets to me.

[–] NateNate60@lemmy.world 16 points 2 weeks ago

Too late for polls now. Only voting is left. So go out and do it if you haven't already

[–] Atelopus-zeteki@fedia.io 5 points 2 weeks ago

Montana has those Big Blue skies!!