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I'm almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he's improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.
I'm also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare "irregularities" that they need to investigate if they don't like the way things are going.
I hope it will not be Florida of 2000 election all over again, but in a massive scale.
It's insane, Gore won by several thousand votes, if not tens of thousands.
It's going to be a shit show.
Right now I think Harris is more likely to win than Trump, but it would also not be an enormous surprise if Trump wins.
I'm in a swing state with an abortion measure on the ballot, and while all the polls claim it's close, I'm not really sure they are properly accounting for the number of voters that have been activated by the possibility of enshrining pro-choice into the state constitution.
These polling strategies are complex and a lot of thought goes into them, but they rarely can account for uncommon circumstances that increase voter turnout in local or state elections and how that will effect the national election.
While this is entirely personal reexperience bias, I also wonder how effective these polls are at reaching a representative survey group. I know at least on my phone basically all survey calls and texts go to spam and I wonder if older, more conservative voters are getting overrepresented due to their likelihood of not having those kinds of spam filters in place.
My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.
Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.
Would U.S.A. foreign policy be drastically affected by who becomes the president?
As a non-American, I think it'd have more impact on the people of the U.S.A and maybe immediate neighbours like Mexico.
Theyβll both be disasters for the USA.
Trump will be a disaster because millions of Americans who are currently on the brink of poverty will sink into poverty under his policies, amplifying all kinds of social problems and civil unrest.
Harris will be a disaster because she will escalate unpopular military conflicts, overextending the military, further lessening the prestige of the US, and encouraging countries to de-dollarize.
The next four years are going to be rough. Thereβs no avoiding it.
Jill Stein comes from behind to take the surprise win. Dems and Republicans both claim it's stolen.
2016 election night again. Kamala has more votes, loses electoral college
Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the 'culture war'.
Harris wins comfortably. Lots of lawsuits. Even more violence.
Impossible to say but Harris is winning the popular vote for sure. I think however it goes there's going to be some chaos and violence, I wouldn't be surprised if there's blatant attempts by MAGA cultists to sabotage what they can and drag out the vote counting and electoral processes. Its probably going to be a shitshow, and possibly a horrorshow. I don't expect it to be called on election night unless its a significant and obvious win, which currently seems very unlikely. I would be less surprised if there was a terrorist attack on election night than a clear and obvious conclusion to the election.
Congress I think Dems are likely to outperform, the RNC is no longer what it was and doesn't have the ground game they used to. All their money and resources have been sucked into the black hole of Trumps campaign.
We will either get Fascism or Fascism Liteβ’
We won't have a clear winner. No matter which candidate "wins", there will be widespread allegations of voter fraud. There will be protests. Biden will declare a national emergency. What happens after that? I don't know. But I am prepared for major social unrest.
A large number of people from both major parties are absolutely unwilling to accept a win by the opposing candidate. I've never seen the country so divided.
I hope you are right about the left not accepting a Trump win. I donβt even know why heβs a legitimate candidate with the whole insurrection thing. Openly gaming the election? Felonies? I donβt think the US can survive four more years of this guy, so I think the time for passively accepting his shenanigans is over.
Thin narrow margin for Harris, several swing states are a new Florida of leaning and ballot counting taking forever. Then right wingers get upset, try to sue as they also then shoot local people for not sieg heiling Trump.
Harris enters office in Jan, makes some statements of how this is horrid, says she'll do something to help it, but won't solve the issues that make people consider being fascists who shoot mosques.
From there we'll see the first 100 days of her term, and if the Senate and House are in favor, we might get some good bills in for a short term solutions to the long term diseases of American necrotic brain damage of conservatism.
For most people, nothing changes. Anti-trans bills are still in place, putting abortion back will be near impossible, and police will still shoot first ask questions second. Maybe some debts are cleared, weed is maybe legalized finally, but the county is the same as it was under Biden.
Harris by a landslide. I'm optimistic and am choosing to have faith in at least some of mankind.
Trump is power hungry while simultaneously old and simple minded. I remember Jan 6. I followed live feeds throughout and immediately after. I watched Trump's speech, the riot it caused. I watched Ashli Babbitt die on some guy's go pro.
I keep asking myself how in the hell Trump is even still in the running. What the fuck is wrong with his supporters?
Please get out and vote Harris! Harris is the way forward. She's not Trump but also SHE IS NOT BIDEN. We need women in power. Look what men have done . She happens to be a good one, of course a politician, but she's won my confidence. Over Trump it was an easy win.
I think she will win but I don't think it will be a landslide. I hope so, but there's a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump's crap.
a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trumpβs crap.
True. Unarguably.
Counterpoint though: There are a bunch of Americans that do not. I know many. I know Republicans that are voting Harris.
Global thermonuclear war.
Love a War Games reference.
Would you like to play a game?
Don't make me hope.
I think we'll have a Dem trifecta after election night. I feel the even the nonpartisan polls have overcorrected in favor of Republicans after 2016, and since the overturning of Roe, polls have been underestimating Dem candidates.
According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we're still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn't on the ballot thing are more accurate. :(
It's certainly possible. The polls are showing it's effectively a tossup. But my real theory is that things are fundamentally different after the death of Roe, and that the pollsters really don't have a way to capture that. Yes, it is a harsh year for the Senate, but there are some dark horse races, namely Texas and Nebraska, that may really surprise us.
I've been reading some discussions this week about fake polls claiming Republicans are winning to make Dems think there's no point in voting. Apparently it was a technique used in a previous recent election? It would explain all the results I've seen in the last few days showing them with a strong lead, where a week or two ago other polls showed an even race. Doesn't really matter though, everyone should remember that the only thing that counts is getting out and casting your vote no matter what the polls might suggest.
There have been a lot of Republican polls posted, part of their "flood the zone" strategy. But I think even the nonpartisan polls are underestimating Dem support a bit.
One can hope, but I suspect nobody will be announcing a victor on Tuesday night.
I'm off that week so I predict I'll be pretty drunk regardless of the result
Whoever wins...
We lose.
The one comment that unites both liberals and conservatives in their hatred of the left.
Both of you can GTFO with your negativity, imo.
This is like two stumbling drunk parents arguing over who's better to drive everyone home and telling the kids "shut up you're not helping!" when they suggest taking a cab.
Harris Wins.
MAGA throws a giant hissy fit, tries about three more coups, goes around intimidating election officials and offices to states that validated the election. Going to spend another 3 years arresting and jailing even more of these idiots until we have an even more prison population problem.
Trump declares once again that he didn't lose, despite all the lies saying he'll admit that he lost if it was fair.
Someone attempts to assassinate Harris during Inauguration. Someone attempts to assassinate Biden because they believe that if he doesn't pass the torch to Harris, then it'll prevent a Harris presidency.
Harris will presumably do a good job but like with nearly all Democratic presidents since Obama, the best that they're good at in Modern-Day America is just temporary hold-over solutions but nothing groundbreaking that'll last long-term.
Harris will probably be fighting with windbags leftover from GOP in Senate, House, Congress and Supreme Court because that's how they've been. No different than Obama's terms and Biden's term.
And then we'll spend 4 years basically just building up until the next shitty election.
Ez Harris W