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Just as a heads up, nate silver joined a "prediction market" board for a company that is heavily funded by Peter Thiel.
He now makes his money from far right billionaires who hate democracy and love Trump/Vance.
I haven't read the article yet so I say this without knowing which way they are predicting, but just keep the above in mind.
Fuck Thiel and all, but Founders Fund invests in a slew of stuff that they think will make them money.
Silver has always been fairly left of center. Anyone that’s listened to his podcasts over the past elections knows that, he wants his work to be neutral, but he’s not into the maga shit.
Silver has always been curious to see if betting markets could more accurately predict election outcomes. I’m not surprised to see him join that company. It’s basically an opportunity for him to explore something he has been curious about for decades.
But yeah, unfortunately, he’s also helping to make a shitty person richer.
RFK Jr used to be left of center, but then he got bought by the far right heir to the Mellon fortune.
Silver may not be in the same place in his life, but it makes him deeply suspect, regardless of how "interests just aligned."
Founders Fund has their dick in everything in the valley. They’ve invested in basically the entire title screen of HBO’s Silicon Valley.
Fuck Thiel, but trying to associate Thiel’s politics with Silver’s Blog / Model is a big stretch.
But still, going from a "unbiased" pollster to a high-tech bookie is clearly a money grab. This article tells us very little, except "it's a close horse race!" That sounds exactly like what a bookie would say to get more money on the match.
His focus has changed. I wonder how Nate Silver himself would treat a formerly good pollster who recently started an online betting arm? I suspect he would downgrade their reliability due to conflict of interest.
To be fair, he blew up because he took statistical modeling frameworks that were used for sports and gambling, and he applied them to elections.
He’s been using this language for years. He’s was a sport statistician and someone that made a living playing poker.
Thiel getting his money dick everywhere is not an accident. It's one he can exercise control on his peers or underlings.
Nate silver opted to join the above, so his opinions are now tainted by that association.
They may be accurate, but they now require extra scrutiny.
I saw the headline and almost expected my phone to start blaring to let me know that there was a missing elderly person last seen in a red Toyota Prius heading east on I94.
Does anyone have access to the actual model output?
What specifically are you looking for? They show the studies that are used an input into the model, but the model that weights the input is private IP.
Like with 538, you see the input and percentages out, but not how the sausage is made.
No just the results. It’s paywalled so I can’t access it.
Boom!
Thanks but these are the inputs to the model. The output would generally be a probabilistic prediction of the outcomes, like 60% chance of Harris victory, 40% Trump, etc.
That’s the part you have to pay for I believe. Although the polling averages are interesting.
Here ya go
Thanks! Surprised they still have Trump favored but I guess the EC is a big factor.
The old version of his model at 538 has it flipped. Harris wins 57 out of 100 times. Still basically coin toss.
I wonder if his new model is accounting for some of the recent voting access changes.
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