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The projected poll places the Tories on just 53 seats - with even the PM losing his seat. This would place the Tories with lowest number of seats since 1832 when party was formed.
I really really hope they come in in third place.
Be careful of the Monkey's Paw - Reform in opposition may mean Reform in power in 10-15 years. The collapse of the Torries is for sure nice to see, but much of that voting block is moving right, not left, and that scares me.
Right now it doesn't look like they're going to win many seats. I hope the LibDems make second.
We will see. I suspect a great deal of reform support is just coming from disgruntled conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote left. Another 5 years of reform candidate saying things like "Hitler was right" will probably sap for the great deal of support.
I moved to Germany, so I know only too well how quickly AfD moved from unelectable to likely coalition partners in the next government. Complacency is a gift to the far right...
We will see, but their support seems mostly theoretical. They don't really have any actual policies and the only way they could think to gain any kind of legitimacy was to bring back the only person who has any real reputation (albeit not entirely universal). And that was despite the fact that they actually do have an MP, since he's a total tit no one likes him.
It isn't complacent it's just a realistic observation of the facts. Their support is 12% at best but probably a lot less when the ballots actually accounted. People like to say they'll vote one way on polls because they are really conservative voters and want to give the conservatives a kick up the arse.
disgruntled conservatives who can’t bring themselves to vote left.
the lib dems are at best center, at worst center right.
That seems... fantastical. I can't imagine labour taking every single seat in the East Midlands at least.
Personally, I think the more the narrative is framed around Labour winning a 'super majority' the opposite might actually be the case. If think Labour are going to win with such a majority will Labour supporters a) still vote and b) would they still vote for Labour - they could afford the vote for another centre-left party as the outcome is not going to change - however the more that people think like that the greater the risk the epic landslide ebbs away. Still can't see Reform making a breakthrough (which incidentally, this poll has Reform on zero seats).
It can go the other way too. Conservative voters think its pointless. Even if their candidate has a chsnce, there is no chance ofnformjng government so why bother.
A lot of the seats the conservatives are down to win they'll only win by a very narrow margin. It only takes a little bit of tactical voting to take away a lot of those seats. I think only about 50 of them are definite wins for the conservatives.
Derbyshire Dales hasn't been Labour since 1950. Will be a sight since you can usually just pin a blue rosette to a donkey out there.
It's Electoral Calculus, so this definitely isn't happening.
It's bullshit to get conservatives out of the house to vote - "anybody but the commies!" - and keep labour voters sleeping late, and making plans to enjoy life, thinking the win is certain.
Which is why Labour have been pretty much repeatedly telling everyone not to consider it a foregone conclusion. And to go out and vote no matter how much of a done deal it looks.
MRP's are going to be very inaccurate this time around due to the size of the swing. That's why they're producing such massively divergent results between different pollsters.
That would leave no Tory in England north of a line from the Mersey to the Wash. Good.