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The projected poll places the Tories on just 53 seats - with even the PM losing his seat. This would place the Tories with lowest number of seats since 1832 when party was formed.
this post was submitted on 19 Jun 2024
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That seems... fantastical. I can't imagine labour taking every single seat in the East Midlands at least.
Personally, I think the more the narrative is framed around Labour winning a 'super majority' the opposite might actually be the case. If think Labour are going to win with such a majority will Labour supporters a) still vote and b) would they still vote for Labour - they could afford the vote for another centre-left party as the outcome is not going to change - however the more that people think like that the greater the risk the epic landslide ebbs away. Still can't see Reform making a breakthrough (which incidentally, this poll has Reform on zero seats).
It can go the other way too. Conservative voters think its pointless. Even if their candidate has a chsnce, there is no chance ofnformjng government so why bother.
A lot of the seats the conservatives are down to win they'll only win by a very narrow margin. It only takes a little bit of tactical voting to take away a lot of those seats. I think only about 50 of them are definite wins for the conservatives.
Derbyshire Dales hasn't been Labour since 1950. Will be a sight since you can usually just pin a blue rosette to a donkey out there.
It's Electoral Calculus, so this definitely isn't happening.