News
Welcome to the News community!
Rules:
1. Be civil
Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.
2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.
Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.
3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.
Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.
4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.
Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.
5. Only recent news is allowed.
Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.
6. All posts must be news articles.
No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.
7. No duplicate posts.
If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.
8. Misinformation is prohibited.
Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.
9. No link shorteners.
The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.
10. Don't copy entire article in your post body
For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.
view the rest of the comments
If I say a roll of a 6-sided die has a >50% chance of landing on a number above 2, and after a single roll it lands on 2, was I wrong?
If anything, the problem is in the unfalsifiability of the claim.
Admittedly, 538 was pretty good about showing their work after. While individual events suffer from the unfalsifiability issue, 538 when Silver was around, did pretty good "how did we do for individual races/states" and compared their given odds to the actual results.
If you predict that a particular die will land on a 3-6 and it lands on a 2, then you were wrong. Predictions are occasionally wrong, that's unavoidable in the real world. Maybe the die wasn't fair and you should adjust your priors.
On the other hand, if you refuse to make a prediction but simply say a particular die has a >50% chance of landing above 2, then your claim is non-falsifiable. I could roll a hundred 1's in a row, and you could say that your probability is correct and I was just unlucky. That's why non-falsifiable claims are ultimately worthless.
Finally, if you claim that a theoretically fair die has a 2/3 probability of landing on 3-6 then you are correct, but that does not necessarily have anything to do with the real world of dice.
He said Trump had a 28% chance of winning, and Trump won. So he was also "right." Do you see now why what you're saying is incorrect?
If I say there is a 4 in 6 probability of a six-sided die rolling a 1-4, I'm correct, even though I'm going to be "wrong" many times. My probability is still correct, and we would verify that by rolling the die a thousand times and looking at the statistical distribution of each number coming up.
But you can't rerun an election 1000 times to "prove" the probability.
Suppose I said Trump had a 72% chance of winning the same election, which Trump won. Am I also "right"?
If so, how can it be that Trump has a 28% chance of winning and a 72% chance of winning?
If not, why is he right instead of me?