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How remote are the chances that this stops him even slightly from spouting absolute nonsense into the void?
He'll shut up until he's goaded into giving an answer. And by goaded I mean "mildly questioned in any way". Then he'll violate the court order and probably confess to about 37 new crimes in the process.
Should take about 2 days. Max.
EDIT: He's got that interview with Tucker Carlson coming up. I don't know what the over/under is for how many crimes he'll confess to during that interview, but whatever that number is, I'm taking the over. And I have a better shot at getting blown by the entire Dallas Cowboys cheerleading squad in alphabetical order than him walking out of that interview without violating the court order at least once.
The interview is prerecorded.
Not doing the Republican debate is probably partly not to incriminate himself further. Either by confessing to crimes, or committing more crimes by violating the court ordered restrictions (like jury intimidation).
Do you honestly think those dimwits are going to be smart enough to edit out anything incriminating? This is Trump we're talking about. The easiest way to edit out anything Trump says is to just cut Trump out of the interview entirely and replace him with a cardboard cutout.
And him not doing the debates is one of those situations where his personal goals just happen to line up with legitimate campaign advice. The man is up 40+ points in the polls, and showing no signs of slowing down. Showing up to the debates would do exactly nothing for him except make him an even bigger target than he already is, along with the legal jeopardy of confessing to crimes live on stage. Any campaign advisor worth a damn would advise him to avoid the debates like the plague even if he was squeaky clean. There's no reason to put yourself at risk of being caught up in a gaffe or some kind of "gotcha" moment when you already have an insurmountable lead.
What are the chances I blink in the next 10 seconds?