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I'm sorry but "charisma" is not a data point you can put into a model. The truth is everything in the modern era has been predictable for a lot of people. And polling may be snapshots, but by putting those snapshots together you can see trends really easily. The second the guy cherry picked the one poll that had Biden up the day after the debate I knew he wasn't the kind of guy who actually runs math models. Nobody who "makes predictions" is doing so off of a single poll. And certainly not one that was either a flash poll or conducted before the debate. To get a look at how long getting that kind of data takes, we're just now getting in depth data from battleground states that was gathered after the debate.
He's also guilty of something you're not supposed to do if you're in that game. He's putting himself in play. Saying there's some X factor only he knows about. In reality, even if there was such a factor, it wouldn't matter. This is a crisis of confidence that Biden brought down on himself. And it won't be easily gotten past. The question now isn't, does Biden win in a traditional race because that's gone. The question now is how much damage gets done here. Can he win with that damage? and can someone else win with the damage of a replacement? And you only need to read the news to see some of the party leadership and Donors have decided the answers are No and Yes.
But also that answer during the interview didn't help at all. He said he'd just be proud to do his best? This isn't a fucking little league game. If he gets replaced or goes forward to lose, that's the moment historians are going to point to.