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How likely is Biden, or his possible replacement, to be elected?
About 25 to 50 percent, depending on which Polling Aggregate source you're using for Biden currently. Which would presumably improve with another candidate.
25% From the economist
40% From The Hill
50% From 538
Meanwhile, RFK Jr., the highest polling of the third party candidates, has less than 1% chance of winning enough electoral votes.
However, my original point wasn't that a Biden replacement would do better than RFK or a third party in the general (though they certainly would), but that if you dislike Biden, him being replaced is more likely than a third party candidate ever winning.
Before the debate, I wasn't sure who'd win: Biden or Trump.
Even Allen Lichtman was unsure.
After the debate, I figure Biden will lose.
I'm not saying it's an absolute certainty—we have 4 months and many things could happen. If someone offered to bet me their $500 that Trump will win to my $100 on Biden winning, I'd take it.
If Biden is replaced, I think he'd be more likely to lose.
If he was elected, Biden needn't serve all 4 years: he could resign a few months later, make Harris President, and AOC, Sanders, Newsom, whatever, as VP.
As I think Biden will lose, one might want to vote their hearts.
Keep in mind, it might be dependent on states.
wp:2020 United States presidential election#Results by state
If 2.5 million Californians who voted for Biden instead voted for RJK Jr, Stein, and West in 2024, Biden (or his replacement) would still probably win all 55 Electoral College votes of that state.
If the 5 million Texans who voted for Biden, also, instead voted RJK Jr, Stein, and West in 2024, Biden would lose no more Electoral College votes.