this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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Yeah those odds-beating misses at least felt like they happened way too often, and I'm pretty sure the percentage really wasn't a "raw" probability but that there was some other fuckery also involved.
Sure, it's definitely statistically possible to miss a few 90% shots in a row, but eg. there's a 0.0001% chance of missing 6 in a row at 90% – and it's not like shit like that only happened once on a blue moon in XCOM
The internet is also littered with these types of studies: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/191291-xcom-2/79589841 where someone went through and calculated up some scores and hit well below the standard deviation for shots.