That's not how this kind of thing works, and it depends on where it starts. If it's 1% of children attempting suicide, which would be a huge amount, a 10% increase is 1.1%, and then for the next year a 10% increase makes it 1.21%, and then 1.33%. This is why when something increases your risk of something by say, 50%, it might mean absolutely nothing if the initial odds are 1 in a billion. 1.5 in a billion isn't really any more likely.

[–] GroteStreet@aussie.zone 31 points 1 year ago

My neighbour was freaking out when she saw in the local newspaper that burglaries in our town had increased by 100%

I pointed out that we had 2 burglaries this year, compared to the 1 last year...

[–] FooBarrington@lemmy.world 9 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

The increase itself doesn't matter where it starts, 10% each year over 13 years will always be an increase of ~245%.

It also matters a lot to look at the relative change no matter the absolute amount, since it indicates a trend. Even if the chance for something terrible is 1 in a billion, a steady 10% increase every year should worry everyone, since there is a clear trend (and compounding increases get big faster than you'd expect).

[–] hotdaniel@lemmy.zip 14 points 1 year ago

Lol. It's 1.1^(2023-2010)

[–] gonzo0815@sh.itjust.works 9 points 1 year ago

Nice rule of thumb: 7% increase per year means doubling in 10 years.

[–] c0mbatbag3l@lemmy.world 7 points 1 year ago

10% above its current rate.

So if 2% of children are killing themselves an increase of ten percent would be 2.2%.