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The threat is #3. From the perspective of the Freedom Caucus, Congress being paralyzed and unable to act is a win condition.
Number 3 is an unstable condition that will quickly collapse into scenario 1 or 2. There are 18 gop members from districts Biden won in 2020. They can get elected as moderate dems easily if they want.
Game theory wise it goes like this. They call the motion and a speaker vote process starts. No winner (#3). Dems work quietly to see if they can forge a majority(#2), KM works quietly to try and pull a few dems. Getting dem votes for McCarthy is almost impossible (he needs too many and there just aren’t a lot of marginal dem members). If word gets out that either of those scenarios are looking fruitful, the freedom caucus will fold at the next vote (#1)
The likelihood of them having to fold after a day or two of votes and re-seat McCarthy is 9 in 10 or better. That other 1 in 10 is speaker Jeffries speaking for a new dem majority of 1 or 2 seats.