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An iPad is already not convenient enough to hold.
This just doesn't work. There is no "smaller niche" for mobile phones and tablets. They are already commodity products. Commercial phones start at 100-200 bucks and are very competent these days. 300-400 are insanely good for the price. And current FOSS-focused options are more expensive and have worse usability.
Giving the FOSS space an out on competing on features because it's a different proposition is not going to work. People are fine with the current proposition, which is why they all already own a phone and probably have access to a tablet. They don't need what you're offering. They need something that does the same thing as their current device AND has an extra advantage on top of that. Ideally a sexy advantage that looks good in a keynote and gets a ton of tech influencer hype and looks good in ads.
It's not about less expensive, it's about not too expensive to try. Say, most Linux phones I can think of start a bit higher than I'd wish.
I think we'll see a time the general public becomes more conscious of the risks. The world is changing, and has already changed enough.
I don't see an indication of that anywhere.
I think there's an awareness of being screwed over on a societal level, but it's on a climate change-like "I know it'd bad but don't see intuitive links to my actions" way.
People will enjoy the "FOSS" label on something the way they enjoy a "Vegan" or "Organic" label in their food. It's nice if it's there, but it won't trump any other considerations for convenience or taste.
So in that sense, people will try a phone if it costs the same, looks the same and has all the same features, but won't take any inconvenience for the sake of privacy or control. So what you end up with is stuff like Nothing phones, Fairphones or Framework laptops that are still fundamentally Android or Windows commercial devices with some concessions to leftie techhead posturing. And even then those are niche options.
No, I don't mean anything like "climate change", I mean the looming promise of full-blown Orwellian world, that is most beneficial for people in power when it's not visible or felt, but they can't prevent it. So over time more and more people will realize that we are already there.
It's the same. World on fire, surveillance economy... both are real world problems that are already noticeable and people generally will admit are bad, but are too detached from individual action to trigger spontaneous mass choices.
The difference is for climate action you probably need regulation, but while regulation will limit what corporations can't do, it won't (arguably shouldn't) enforce a FOSS-driven ecosystem.