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This could very easily spiral into a full-on WW3 scenario. Note, WW3 may not look like what you expect it to look like. We've been culturally conditioned to think WW3 will look like thousands of mushroom clouds over major cities, but that need not be the case. WW3 could be a large conventional war just like the previous world wars.
Russia is already bogged down in Ukraine, and the US and NATO are supplying them. Israel is at war with a half a dozen countries, and the US is supporting them, including directly entering the war on Iran. The danger of WW3 lies is revealed when you ask, why did Israel choose this time to attack Iran? They chose to because now was simply the perfect opportunity. With Iran's proxy fighters around Israel devastated, with the Gaza a smoking ruin, Iranian power is lower than it has been in years. That's why they decided to do this now - kick them while they're down.
Us getting bogged down in Iran, however, presents other countries with their own windows of opportunity. And the biggest one is China invading Taiwan. China has been saber-rattling and openly planning an invasion of Taiwan, to be done at some point in the next few years. What better time to launch it than when the US has already been depleting their limited weapon stocks in Ukraine, and just got bogged down in Iran?
China is already involved in the Ukraine conflict; they're one of Russia's biggest suppliers. Iran also is a Russian ally, providing them thousands of drones. The alliance system of a potential world war is already laid out. It would be Russia/Iran/China vs the US, NATO, and assorted allies.
This would be unlikely to end up in a full nuclear exchange. Direct invasion of the homelands of Russia, China, or the US are not going to happen. But we could see multiple large conventional armed conflicts breaking out in multiple theaters, a conflict between two vast alliance systems that between them encompass most of the world's population.
If that isn't a world war, I don't know what is. Nukes don't need to fly to have a conflict that leaves millions dead.
I honestly don't think the US has its traditional allies any more. Why should Canada get involved in defense of a bully who is threatening to invade it?
Israel is the third variable in the equation since everyone is subservient to it, so who knows what will happen there
Precisely so it doesn't end up on the wrong side and end up getting invaded.
IMO, there is a lot of conjuntive in it.
For now, there were only bombs on nuclear facilities from the US side... No foot troops getting bogged down. Nothing getting bogged down for now...
You can always imagine how something could link to a word war. That would have already worked for Ukraine. That would have worked with Afghanistan as well.
The question is how realistic it is. I'm not a fan of painting the devil on the wall by declaring WW3 myself on Lemmy and saying goodbye to others....
US weapons stockpiles aren’t depleted in the slightest. You guys sent your old stuff to Ukraine and not much more, and you haven’t sent anything substantial in over a year.
Iran will, most likely, not involve more than an air campaign and the US can do that with a bomber wing and a carrier strike group. I can’t imagine a case where this evolves into a full invasion (but of course with trump you can never be sure).
If anything, seeing Iran getting dominated by Israel and the US would probably give China some doubts about a possible operation against Taiwan.