this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2025
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there's a low likelyhood.
The key question is what will happen to Israel in the future?
In my opinion, Israel cannot stay in the middle east for much longer. They have to move out.
Israel is so universally hated in the middle east, it's difficult to put into words. (at least that's what i got from other people's messages). it's difficult/impossible to conceive a long-term stability in the region with Israel in it. and israel knows this, of course.
The question is: what will israel do? Will it escalate the conflict to try to grasp to power through military dominance in the area? Or will it soften its grip and let go of control in the middle east?
I just want to respond to my own comment with some follow-up thoughts:
Israel is mostly backed by the US to "protect US interests in the area", which i translate as: mostly oil.
Since the transition to renewable energy is happening at an exponential speed, i guess that the consumption of fossil fuels could be reduced by 2040 by 90%. That would make the US completely independent from oil from the middle east, and the US would no longer need Israel, which would weaken Israel's grip in the region. That is why i think they would retreat, instead of attack.
Just my two cents.
I think your souces for whats actually happening is clouding your judgement. There is no world where isreal is forced out of the middle east. They've made the strategic moves to take those options off the table.
Isreal is more than capable of defending themselves with us support. They have destroyed almost all major threats in rhe region with Iran being the last one.
Arabs in the region will never forget this war. But Arabs also hated isreal before so I doubt much has changed on the perception front.
Most likely isreal will go back to normalisation with governments in the region since all major terrorist factions are virtually eliminated. If they can get regime change in Iran there is a good chance things will stabilise. Maybe they will need to destroy the houthis as well.
Aka threatening the planet with a nuclear holocaust.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
No. The zio regime is still fully in control of large areas of palestine. Not to mention wider imperial terrorism.