this post was submitted on 03 Apr 2025
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The DJIA hit an all time high of about 45000 in Dec 24, not too long aftet the election.
It has been about 4 months since then, and the DJIA has dropped about 10%, to about 40500.
But before that, the average growth of thr DJIA, per year, for the last 10 years, was about 9%.
US median yearly wage is about $50k.
Avg Inflation for the last 10 years is about 3.5% a year.
Same for median wage growth.
Lets say you are 50, and have 150k vested into your 401k, the rough average for a 50 yo with a 401k, and you contribute 10% to your 401k, with a 50% (of your 10%, so 5%) employer match.
Ok then.
Here's what your retirement looks like if these trends all continue.
You have $761k to live off of for 20 years after you retire at 65 and die at 85.
$38k a year.
Ah, but now lets just have a momentary 10% drop in the stock market, but hold everything else the same.
Now you're retiring with $706k, a $55k loss, about $35k a year.
Ok, now lets say your wages only grow at 0.5% a year, the stock market growth for the next 15 years averages 1%, and inflation averages 6%.
Oh, well now your 401k is actually uh, $252k at age 65, $12.6k a year to live off.
If you think that's unrealistic... the stock market didn't top its peak in 1929 untill 1954.
That is a 25 year period with an average stock market growth of zero, over that time period.
The tariffs Trump just enacted average out to around a 22% effective tariff rate.
The Great Depression era Smoot Hawley tariffs were only 19%.
....Oh right, and thats all assuming you don't get laid off.
So that's a lot.of words to say your dad is a fucking imbecile, sorry about that.
My dad is also a MAGAtard, but he's also all the way down the QAnon rabbit hole, builds ghost guns in his garage... I now live many states away from him.
EDIT: It is now less than 24 hrs after I made this post ... and the DJIA is now under 39000.
Thats about a 13% drop from the top, 4 months ago, as opposed to the 10% drop i did all the numbers with yesterday.
Yee fucking haw!