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Why not? Isn't that the reason for the influxes of users that have happened so far?
Hmm, I don't think the past is a good predictor of the future in this case.
Maybe everyone likely to leave reddit for lemmy already has?
With the influxes that have occurred in the past I think Lemmy has retained about a third of the MAUs contained in the spike. It's not nothing but I think it really underlines my point that Lemmy just isn't a viable alternative for a lot of reddit users. The network effect might be responsible for some of that, but not all.
Also, as time goes by there are more corporate backed alternatives, like threads.