this post was submitted on 24 Dec 2024
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I always thought this metaverse crap was just an obvious money-making scheme that preyed on isolated people during COVID-19. They only started developing their metaverse platforms during the pandemic. Of course they all failed to capitalize because the world largely returned to normal while they were still flaunting NFTs and unfinished metaverse platforms that still can't do better than a private Minecraft SMP with your friends.
I suspect that it's one of those things that will happen at some point in the future, but we just don't have the technology and equipment ready for it just yet. I figure it's similar to AI research in like 2007 when they were able to put the computer on Jeopardy and have it compete against the contestants. It worked, but it wasn't ready for mainstream usage at the time.
The second life/metaverse/virtual reality concept will never be widely accepted by the majority of the population because it just isn't what the vast majority of people want. They want communication methods that compliment their real world lives.
Yes, it will probably be more popular at some point than it has been so far if they can pull off affordable ultra realism, but the escapism of virtual worlds appeals to a relatively small portion of the population. Not to mention that a lot of people have a limited amount of free time, and even if it was extremely popular at first, the novelty would wear off fairly quickly for most people.
Gaming is an absolutely massive economic sector, driven by the escapism of virtual worlds. The functional kernel of the metaverse is a universal game lobby, a place for people to congregate while they navigate between the games they play together.
I think you're right about affordability.
There's a subset of the population who will pursue VR for gaming et cetera, but it's a limited subset. While the same hardware or tech might be able to be used for casual AR / VR helpful type things like meetings or informational things those applications just aren't beneficial enough to make it worth the cost of the hardware.
If there was more content, more useful applications, and the cost was negligible, then sure it will take off.
In my 20s I would've been interested in VR for gaming and would've been excited about the potential applications of AR. Now in my 40s it's clear that tech doesn't bring me joy, and I'd like to diminish it's role in my life. As in, I want tech to improve my well being and quality of life rather than consume my time and limit my experience of life.
20 years from now, I can imagine myself as a reluctant late-adopter of AR. I just absolutely will not tolerate ads in this regard. I'd rather forage for twigs and berries in the wilderness than allow adverts to be injected into my experience of realiity.
A big problem with virtual worlds is that it doesn’t really take that long to get to the “end.” The end of the landscape, the end of the mechanics, the end of the economy, whatever. Then you’re stuck waiting for DLC, and that runs out in short order, too.
In reality, even if you stay in one place your whole life, you know there’s more to see; or are the wealthiest person in the world, there’s still more.
I had assumed the metaverse was more about augmented reality than an alternate reality. I don't really know anything about it though.
I don't think that's strictly true, but I do think it would require their real world lives to get shockingly worse to increase the appeal of living in a "better" world.
This is usually how you see these kind of things presented in fiction: everyone uses a "metaverse", but it requires a full on completely society destroying dystopia to also exist to make it sufficiently appealing.
I'd put money on the next round of VR worlds getting a lot more buy-in since you've got a generation of kids growing up that are already living mostly online, and a species that seems hell-bent on diving in to a nice authoritarian dystopia, so uh, the next 20 years will probably be real interesting,
I think what we will get out of all this virtual reality research is good augmented reality devices because being able to look at something and pull up information on that thing or instructions on how to use it, etc. would be damn useful. I think I've heard of companies using AR and VR for training purposes, like how to work machines in a factory, etc. before you actually start using them.
I see people buying $300 AR glasses as a portable monitor to watch porn comfortably while in bed.
Remote medical procedures, remote military weapons, remote repair of datellites, etc. will all benefit as well.
I think all of those applications will, or already have, develop independently of something like Facebook metaverse. If anything meta is taking those useful applications and trying to turn it into a household product that nobody needs.
Do any of these applications really require AR / VR though?
Require? No.
Likely to be improved by more spacial awareness? Yes.
It's the same reason that urbanization collapses every time it gets out of hand, as it did in Babylon and Rome before us. The majority of the population doesn't even WANT to live in an artificial environment, no matter how hard those who wield power attempt to push it on everyone.
The massive popularity of Ready Player One, which was a mostly bland and bad story besides having a Metaverse in it, might imply otherwise.
I don't think people are yearning for a dystopian future.
The popularity in the fictional setting, based on speculation?
The popularity of the book/move, which is a short period of escapism not at all comparable to virtual reality?
The popularity of the book/movie incorporating a classic concept of cyberpunk, yes.
We've been dreaming of a Metaverse just about since we've had internet. Only, nobody's made one that's worth a damn in the real world yet.
Dude it's a book.
"Gladiators would be popular because there's this movie called Gladiator that everyone loves and that has heaps of Gladiators."
Gladiator was a movie because historically we've had heaps of gladiators and they were popular public entertainment.
I think that's just a coincidence because it was also just after buying Oculus and developing the Quest 2 which sold like hotcakes. I think things fizzled out because everyone I know, myself included, got tired of VR after a couple weeks because the software just isn't there and it can be quite isolating to use.
SteamVR on PC is excellent FYI. Lots of great VR games on Steam
Alyx has ruined almost every other VR game for me purely from how polished of an experience it is. Every other game that isn't an arcade, driving/racing sim or a fitness game just feels clunky to me.
Polished, right. Wouldn't even run past the menu on my (overpowered) PC, as the only VR game out of those I've tried. Forums full of people with similar issues...
Yes, but it is also very different. I have a VR headset and use it every now and then. But compared to "normal" gaming it is quite different.
When playing a non-VR game you can just minimize the game and check stuff between rounds/matches/when you pause/etc. With VR I feel like you have to be there all the time, and the headsets are still heavy so you can't play as long. Not to mention you are usually standing.
I like VR and think it will be good eventually, but it is not there yet. It is 100% playable as it is, but the overall tech is not quite there yet.
VR is totally "there" for those who want to use it, and it does take a little more effort than plopping into a chair and clicking a mouse. But that's life - you get more out of things you put more effort into.