this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2024
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Cruz won over Beto at 2.6%, 538 is projecting Cruz at +4% over Allred. What am I missing?
The Iowa poll is the key to this whole thing.
The Setzer poll tosses out what past elections use as a base for their calculations. She goes off what's happening now and it's an extremely reliable poll.
#VOTE!!
Aged like milk. What a shame.
I'm going to ask this dumb question in the interest of learning: I understand and agree Setzer is solid at polling Iowa, but what does it have to do with the Texas Senate?
Polls are going off old data, not taking in account the new voters, and the Republicans dropped 30 shitty right-wing polls that skewed the data.
Blind optimism
Cruz with a 10% lead, lol. Texans like it, I guess.
Same as 2022. I've been saying for months that Allred was running the wrong kind of campaign. For all of his flaws Beto O'Rourke did better than any Democrat has in like the last 30 years. Instead of following that strategy of high energy and high engagement Allred ran a low energy passive campaign that spent all this energy targeting Republican and moderate voters. Insanity. In essence he ran the same tired Texas democratic party campaign as everyone else who gets their ass kicked in this state does.
Can't really trust the polls, from what I've been reading they've been overcompensating for the "Trump R factor" not to mention all the shady Republicans polls that keep dumping trash data that are all "Oh yea it's gonna be a total Trump landslideee!!!! Trust me brooo!"