Win or lose, they're fucked for the next decades at least.
Who are 'they'? If you talk about people who decide to continue the war - not necessarily: the power and elite are cementing and the probability of toppling Putin is decreasing rapidly with each year of militarization.
If you talk about common people, then I agree, for regular russians that's a disaster, for a tiny minority - the last opportunity to get rich.
If you equate these categories, you are a delulu
https://200.zona.media/
11200 as-of now. Based on your estimate of real casualties= 3x identified casualties it's more likely to be 300-400 thousand which is already a devastating number way beyond the threshold you have mentioned.
It's just weird to remind that if a side, any side claims that it has 50 thousand casualties and the enemy is beyond one million, you are being fed with horseshit and you need to just stop eating it.