October 1, 2024 was a historic day for Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum became the first female president in the history of Mexico, a country politically dominated by men who have historically tried to display an archetypal image of rugged masculinity. But Sheinbaum’s election invites us to think about a series of factors that are not solely circumscribed to her gender.
First of all, we must consider that MORENA (“National Regeneration Movement”), just over a decade since it was founded, has managed to become a political party that demonstrates a great capacity to remain in power despite the great political wear and tear that a six-year term implies (in Mexico, presidential terms last six years). While this seems to be a common occurrence in the Mesoamerican country, if we take into account that the PRI governed for more than 70 consecutive years (albeit committing electoral fraud on several occasions) and PAN managed to win two consecutive elections with Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderón, MORENA’s reelection is significant if we consider the enormous campaign deployed by mainstream media against the progressive government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Fear campaigns predicted a national catastrophe that never happened, and somehow the majority of Mexicans opted instead to disregard the media machine and trust their reality on the ground. Sheinbaum’s cultivation of a strong public political communication strategy will be crucial to maintain this trend.
Indeed, it was already historic for a progressive or center-left candidate to have won the presidential elections in Mexico. But for this party to repeat the victory six years later is even more extraordinary. This shows the enormous popularity not only of AMLO but also of the political project he leads. Since his militancy in the PRD, AMLO has managed to unite a series of aspirations and desires of the most impoverished sectors of the country around his figure, but he has also managed to transcend his individual figure in favor of a political process that has been called “the Fourth Transformation” (4T). Even as president, Sheinbaum will have to continue demonstrating that she is the most capable heir in this path of collective institutional transformation.
Claudia Sheinbaum managed to establish herself as a political figure that was able to galvanize the support and trust of the majority of the Mexican people, as seen in the electoral results. There was indeed a large vote of confidence in favor of MORENA, and it is obvious that those who voted for Sheinbaum expect continuity in terms of the works and legal reforms undertaken by AMLO. But the current president has also demonstrated in her position as Head of Government of Mexico City, an enormous capacity for public management and administration of the institutions under her charge.
Great expectations
For now, beyond the speculations of some political commentators, it remains to be seen if Sheinbaum will remain as the protégé of AMLO or if she will manage to become a more relevant political figure than her predecessor. What we can say is that expectations about her administration can be considered even higher than those that appeared at the beginning of AMLO’s administration. She will have to demonstrate, contrary to the opinions of the ideologues of the Mexican and Latin American right wing, if it is possible to sustain a social democratic project in the medium term in a developing country, and even more if such a project is beneficial for the great majorities, as well as for public finances.
As she stated in her address, one of the biggest unresolved debts that the Mexican state has with the people is with the victims of state crimes and paramilitary crimes, especially Ayotzinapa. The security situation and countering the power of narco trafficking groups in the country remains a huge challenge and one that is difficult to tackle and dangerous to ignore.
In addition, Sheinbaum will have to face an opposition that has learned better how to confront progressive administrations and their political communication mechanisms, as well as external enemies that will actively seek to make her government fail. To a large extent, this will be important to know which countries she approaches and which she distances herself from, as well as the capacity or inability of her government to dissociate itself from the great international powers that hegemonize international politics today.
It will also be seen if she will seek to radicalize the public policies of her predecessor, if she maintains the same tone, or if her government acquires a more demure and conciliatory drift with the large Mexican economic groups.
In any case, it will also depend on this whether MORENA’s second administration tilts a tinge closer to a progressivism that seeks to become part of the political establishment or whether it opts for breaking (to the extent of its possibilities) certain historical social relations that have allowed for the greatest inequality between rich and poor in Mexico’s history, the systematic oppression of Indigenous peoples, among other unfavorable socioeconomic indicators.
As always happens in politics, there is no crystal ball, and the future remains to be seen. Although in this first week, from the presidential office in Mexico, Sheinbaum has surely been wondering what to do first, with whom to negotiate, what forces she will have to face, and what may be her first obstacles. Yet, probably most importantly, how to plan, geopolitically speaking, a government in a world that is rapidly moving towards war, and in which Mexico, because of its economic and geopolitical importance, has much to say, especially because of the historical, migratory, economic and cultural relationship it has with the giant that is stirring to the north: the United States.
Says the redditor begging me to take Washington think tanks seriously because learning something new scares him.