bitofhope

joined 1 year ago
[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 1 points 1 year ago

Before 2030, do you consider it more likely than not that current AI techniques will scale to human level in at least 25% of the domains that humans can do, to average human level.

Domains that humans can do are not quantifiable. Many fields of human endeavor (e.g. many arts and sports) are specifically only worthwhile because of the limits of human minds and bodies. Weightlifting is a thing even though we have cranes and forklifts. People enjoy paintings and drawing even though we have cameras.

I do not find likely that 25% of currently existing occupations are going to be effectively automated in this decade and I don't think generative machine learning models like LLMs or stable diffusion are going to be the sole major driver of that automation.

Do you consider it likely, before 2040, those domains will include robotics

Humans are capable of designing a robot, procuring the components to build the robot, assembling it and using the robot to perform a task. I don't expect (or desire) a computer program to be able to do the same independently during any of our expected lifetime. It is entirely plausible that tools which apply ML techniques will be used more and more in robotics and other industries, but my money is on those tools being ultimately wielded by humans for the foreseeable future.

If AI systems can control robotics, do you believe a form of Singularity will happen. This means hard exponential growth of the number of robots, scaling past all industry on earth today by at least 1 order of magnitude, and off planet mining soon to follow. It does not necessarily mean anything else.

No. Even if Skynet had full control of a robot factory, heck, all the robot factories, and staffed them with a bunch of sleepless foodless always motivated droids, it would still face many of the constraints we do. Physical constraints (a conveyor belt can only go so fast without breaking), economic constraints (Where do the robot parts and the money to buy them come from? Expect robotics IC shortages when semiconductor fabs' backlogs are full of AI accelerators), even basic motivational constraints (who the hell programmed Skynet to be a ~~paperclip~~ C3PO maximizer?)

Do you think that mass transition where most human jobs we have now will become replaced by AI systems before 2040 will happen

No. A transition like that brought by mechanization and industrialization of agriculture, or the outsourcing of manufacturing industry accompanied by the shift to a service economy, seems plausible, but not by 2040 and it won't be driven by just machine learning alone.

Is AI system design an issue. I hate to say “alignment”, because I think that’s hopeless wankery by non software engineers, but given these will be robotic controlling advanced decision-making systems, will it require lots of methodical engineering by skilled engineers, with serious negative consequences when the work is sloppy?

Yes, system design is an important issue with all technology. We are already seeing real damage from "AI" technology getting to make important decisions: self-driving vehicle accidents, amplified marginalization of minorities due to feedback of bias into the models, unprecedented opportunities for spam and propaganda, bottlenecks of technology supply chains and much more.

Automation will absolutely continue to replace more and more different kinds of human labor. While this does and will drive unemployment to some extent, there is a more subtle issue with it as well. Productivity of human labor per capita has been soaring decade by decade, but median wages and work hours have stagnated. AI, like many other technologies before and after, is probably gonna end up creating more bullshit jobs, with some people coming into them from already bullshit jobs. If AI can replace half of human labor, that should then mean the average person has to work half as hard, but instead they will have to deliver double the results.

I just think the threat model of autonomous robot factories making superhuman android workers and replicas of itself at an exponential rate is pure science fiction.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 1 points 1 year ago

Maybe this place needs a sister community SNEARCULT.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 6 points 1 year ago

Gave up on st in favour of alacritty after realizing I deserve nice things like clickable links and scrolling without maintaining a dependency hell of patches.

I think they toned down the nazi shit around the time when my tolerance for that brand of edginess began to dip towards the crust punk bartender's level, so I've given them a huge benefit of doubt.

I somehow didn't remember them doing a mock Charlottesville, though. I'm disappointed but at this point not too surprised.

Thankfully my desire for a community of software minimalist C curmudgeons and Unix nerds is adequately fulfilled by friends IRL whom I know for sure not to be fascist assholes.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 7 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Too bad E and A should be next to each other too

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Well put. When a rationalist remembers to pretend to do bayesianism, they do exactly what everyone else does but pretend as if they've figured out something unique.

🤔 Hmm hmm I wonder what color the leaves are on the next tree. A typical frequentist simpleton might think they're green since that's the most common color of a tree leaf but as a Bayesian I have priors including the fact it's October and in autumn most leaves are yellow. Surely no normies would take external facts into account!

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 6 points 1 year ago

The linked post exemplifies the virtue of hazukashii, truly itai school hakushin-class yabai-style writing. In Japan they don't say "Rationalism" they say "クリンジ" and I think that's beautiful.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 11 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Kudos for the effortpost. My 5-second simpleton objection went something like

YEA BECAUSE WEBCAMS COME WITH DENSITY SENSORS INCLUDED RIGHT?

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 10 points 1 year ago

The word "Einstein" appears no less than eight times in this story.

Bringing up Hendrix every ten sentences doesn't make you an amazing guitarist either.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 7 points 1 year ago (1 children)

On the flipside, there's hope for many of them to grow and reconsider their positions. Whomst among us wasn't a dumbass as a teenager?

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 8 points 1 year ago

showdead on

mad_leftist 10 hours ago [flagged] [dead] | parent | prev | next [–]

I thought the video was a bit tame, personally. I'd prefer some footage of a Nazi being raped. The world doesn't have enough good-guy-on-Nazi rape, for my liking.

clicks green username

user: mad_leftist created: 10 hours ago karma: 0

Surely a genuine leftist who just happened to create a HN account today.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Damn, currently most of the comments are actually fine with it and the concerned moralists are downvoted. The Github issue got an interesting response too.

[–] bitofhope@awful.systems 12 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Spoken like a true Lawful Good weenie.

As a Chaotic Neutral INTJ Gray Tribe Ravenclaw Scorpio the DnD alignment system works great for analyzing behavior in hunter-gatherer societies and therefore ours.

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