TinyTimmyTokyo

She seems to do this kind of thing a lot.

According to a comment, she apparently claimed on Facebook that, due to her post, "around 75% of people changed their minds based on the evidence!"

After someone questioned how she knew it was 75%:

Update: I changed the wording of the post to now state: 𝗔𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟳𝟓% 𝗼𝗳 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝘂𝗽𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻*

And the * at the bottom says: Did some napkin math guesstimates based on the vote count and karma. Wide error bars on the actual ratio. And of course this is not proof that everybody changed their mind. There's a lot of reasons to upvote the post or down vote it. However, I do think it's a good indicator.

She then goes on to talk about how she made the Facebook post private because she didn't think it should be reposted in places where it's not appropriate to lie and make things up.

Clown. Car.

What a bunch of monochromatic, hyper-privileged, rich-kid grifters. It's like a nonstop frat party for rich nerds. The photographs and captions make it obvious:

The gang going for a hiking adventure with AI safety leaders. Alice/Chloe were surrounded by a mix of uplifting, ambitious entrepreneurs and a steady influx of top people in the AI safety space.

The gang doing pool yoga. Later, we did pool karaoke. Iguanas everywhere.

Alice and Kat meeting in “The Nest” in our jungle Airbnb.

Alice using her surfboard as a desk, co-working with Chloe’s boyfriend.

The gang celebrating… something. I don’t know what. We celebrated everything.

Alice and Chloe working in a hot tub. Hot tub meetings are a thing at Nonlinear. We try to have meetings in the most exciting places. Kat’s favorite: a cave waterfall.

Alice’s “desk” even comes with a beach doggo friend!

Working by the villa pool. Watch for monkeys!

Sunset dinner with friends… every day!

These are not serious people. Effective altruism in a nutshell.

People who use the term "race realism" unironically are telling on themselves.

Reading his timeline since the revelation is weird and creepy. It's full of SV investors robotically pledging their money (and fealty) to his future efforts. If anyone still needs evidence that SV is a hive mind of distorted and dangerous group-think, this is it.

All factual and counter-factual statements are evidence for my position. Heads I win, tails you lose.

"Fucking probabilities, how do they work?"

The first comment and Yud's response.

The first comment by the first commenter is "Can we suspend Godwin's Law for a moment?" followed by an explanation of the ways in which The Protocols of the Elders of Zion is an accurate description of reality.

Libertarianism is never far from Nazism. The Venn diagram is a circle. The only question is which circle contains the other.

I like the way he thinks the lack of punctuation in his "joke" is the tell that it's a joke.

He's also apparently never heard the aphorism that if you have to explain the joke, it's probably not that funny.

One of the easiest ways to get downvoted on the orange site is to say anything even mildly critical of Scott Alexander Siskind. It's really amusing how much respect there is for him there.

I see him more as a dupe than a Cassandra. I heard him on a podcast a couple months ago talking about how he's been having conversations with Bay Area AI researchers who are "really scared" about what they're creating. He also spent quite a bit of time talking up Geoffrey Hinton's AI doomer tour. So while I don't think Ezra's one of the Yuddite rationalists, he's clearly been influenced by them. Given his historical ties to effective altruism, this isn't surprising to me.

I mean, of course he loves unfettered technology and capitalism. He's a fucking billionaire. He hit the demographic lottery.

EDIT: I just noticed his list of "techno-optimist" patrons. On the list? John Galt. LMAO. The whole list is pretty much an orgy of libertarians.