Based on the show they've put on in Ukraine, and leaving aside nuclear weapons, I don't think the Russian military is a credible threat to NATO.
this post was submitted on 19 Jan 2024
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Even so, NATO wouldn't kerb-stomp Russia.
Completely obliterating its government, industrial capacity, trade, and military would lead to a collapse of that country, fracturing of its territory, and probably heaps more political headaches down the road as the power dynamic is altered.
NATO would aspire to remove Russia from non-Russian territory in most areas, probably including Transnistria but excluding Syria and Africa. They would probably seek regime change, but the old guard of Russian politics would be preserved. They want to return the status-quo ante bellum.
The US and NATO would always seek the Japan option and not the Iraq option. Japan surendered and basically became an autonomous industrial client state of the US for a long time. Iraq dissolved into civil wars and became an unhealing wound that continually sprouted infections like ISIS and became a playground for bad actors like Iran.
Even after the collapse of the soviet union, the US financially propped up some industries in Russia, like their spaceflight industry.
Comparing Iraq to Japan is wild. One is a united country for long time, the other was created based on arbitrary lines on a map.
Nobody wants to own Russia either. As our eloquent former president said, it's a 'shithole country' with few redeeming qualities. But Russia might have a lot to gain in terms of plunder and valuable land in a war with more geographically blessed neighboring countries. Particularly ones with warm water ports. It's good to keep the fight up. Plus, unlike some countries, Ukraine really does want to be a sovereign country with a vibrant democracy. And it has the balls to go for the gold, too.
NATO as a credible threat is mostly article 5, Something that is still intact, but under attack. Russia doesn't want the large European powers or America. They want to control Eastern Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. Say the political winds change a little, America moves to isolationism. Western Europe decides that it is better to give up on a few smaller states to protect its core countries. Maybe also China decided it is finally time to see if everybody is bluffing over protecting Taiwan. Suddenly NATO seems a lot less dangerous.
Could Russia take on NATO in a one on one conflict, not no not at the moment. Could Russia foment the weakening or break up of NATO and then use that to take on Small Pieces of NATO yeah that has been a plan in the works for a long time now.
So... Putin can't take Ukraine and is losing a not insignificant part of their military capabilities and yet we're concerned that we're going to deal with more war with Russia? Are they going to be coming after Europeans with sharpened sticks?
Prolly nukes. At which point who cares any more.
Considering the poor state of all their military equipment, I wonder how many of their nukes are actually functional.
I hear this said a lot, but unfortunately if one is working that is one too many
The nice thing about having 6000 nukes is you only need about half of them.
I think a half of a half of a half of a half of half of that would probably do just fine too tbh
Only need one
Related stories (credit : @Hooverx@lemm.ee )
From Germany hooverx had 4 more sources :
Putin could attack NATO in ‘5 to 8 years,’ German defense minister warns – POLITICO
https://lemmy.world/post/10912750
originally :
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-germany-boris-pistorius-nato/
Russian spring offensive could lead to war with Nato, according to German defence scenario https://www.intellinews.com/russia-could-attack-nato-as-early-as-february-bild-reports-307785/
Germany warns of Russian attack on NATO within ‘5-8 years’ https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-warns-of-russian-attack-on-nato-within-5-8-years-/3113783
Leaked German military documents laid out a doomsday scenario where Russia wins in Ukraine then invades Europe
https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-military-docs-envision-russia-war-nato-in-2024-2024-1
2 from Poland :
‘Europe will be subject to a direct Russian attack in the next few years’ — Polish PM Tusk
https://news.yahoo.com/europe-subject-direct-russian-attack-150500271.html
Polish PM warns of possible Russian aggression against Europe https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/polish-pm-warns-of-possible-russian-aggression-1704315471.html
and 2 from Estonia:
Europe has 3-5 years to prepare for threat from Russia's side - Estonian PM
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/15/7437368/
Russia's attack on NATO - Kaja Kallas says there is 3-5 years to prepare and calls for stopping Putin in Ukraine
https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-world/news-there-are-3-5-years-to-prepare-estonian-prime-minister-warned-of-possible-russian-aggression-against-nato-16-01-2024.html
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Rob Bauer warned Thursday that a larger war with Russia and other adversaries is a real threat amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Bauer, chair of the Western security alliance’s Military Committee, said “not everything is going to be hunky dory in the next 20 years.”
Bauer gave the dire warning as NATO announced large-scale exercises next week involving all 31 alliance members, as well as candidate nation Sweden.
The military drills, which run until May and are the largest since the end of the Cold War, will involve 90,000 troops and numerous vehicles, aircraft and ships spread across Europe.
When announcing the drills, NATO leaders emphasized this week that it was vital to prepare for conflict and maintain readiness, even as the alliance remains defensive by nature.
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked concerns that a Russian victory could pave the way for subsequent attack on NATO countries, while the Biden administration is fending off attacks from Iranian-backed groups across the Middle East as Washington seeks to contain a wider regional war from spilling out.
The original article contains 341 words, the summary contains 176 words. Saved 48%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
I was banking on total world collapse within the next 20 years.
People have said that in the 1910s, late 1920s, late 1930s, late 1940s all the way up until the early 1990s, and then we started saying it for other reasons like climate change and AI. It’s always possible, but honestly not likely. The end of globalization will have some severe effects across the world like massive famine in countries that keep reproducing with no food security, but I don’t think we should constantly declare the sky is falling when we’ve proven just how resilient the world is in the wake of an all-out pandemic and supply chain crisis
From the Russian perspective, the world order already collapsed in 1991.
The problem is: for Romania, Poland, Ukraine, and many other countries, that's when life started to get better. Russia thinks the opposite, they want to return to the time of the Soviet Union.
Nostalgia for the 1980s wouldn't be a "collapse". But... it'd be good for Russia, bad for USA and especially bad for Europe. It would be incredibly unpleasant to Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.