Football / Soccer / Calcio / Futebol / Fußball

I’ve always been so apprehensive at how quickly the public adopted it as the end-all-be-all stat. It’s flawed and subjective (the fact different sites have different models). It’s similar to how basketball fans use the TS% to settle debates nowadays.

I think this should be viewed at the end of the season.

Because every time I've watched either Everton or Chelsea they've looked much better than they did last season, and typically performances come before results.

But if you were to ask me the two most improved clubs in terms of performance this season I would say Chelsea and Everton, closely followed by us.

Chelsea and Everton the "most improved" while both having a generally awful start to the season is a fun indication of how useful xG is.

Except Everton have been pretty good and are easily the most underrated team in the leauge. I'd argue they were pretty unlucky and were shit aginst Luton which apparently is the only relevant game of the season for judging them on. If anything, their quality on the pitch compared with their xG is a lot more similar than when compared to how many points they've gained.

xG is worthless for you because you couldn't finish of a virgin who'd been edging for 8 hours.

Can’t read it because paywall but do they say why they excluded penalties? I understand it for players but surely for teams conceding/earning a penalty would be relevant to the overall point of this graphic.

No up and to the right is best, the x axis is xG conceded per game, and it’s descending

Would rather have this than the other way around. We'll click eventually

We also haven't had a single game with a preferred starting XI. How much have we seen a midfield of Partey, Odegaard, and Rice? A single half against City? Imagine how much ball progression alone would improve with the full team

It's definitely fucked us massively, but if we survive then I wouldn't say the improvement was entirely a waste, because if we continued playing like we did last season and got a 10 point deduction, we were definitely going down even with the weaker relegation opponents

It’s either Everton or Chelsea. Quite hard to really say who from this graph

After the initial outrage over the 10pt deduction dies down, Toffees would be secretly happy that it came at the best time for them.

Last season, they're relegated. Earlier this season when they were on a bad run and suddenly the doom and gloom around the club could've spiralled. Later this season and they wouldn't have the games left to react.

But now, in a good run, with enough games to go and the siege mentality setting in with very low risk of actual relegation = best outcome of a bad situation.

United’s vibe is basically ‘what if we tried to press like Tottenham but weren’t very good at it?’ — they force a lot of high turnovers but allow chances at about the same rate as Wolves and Nottingham Forest.

This line cracked me up LMAO

The most surprising thing upon his introduction last season, even though results didn't go brilliantly, was that our xG shot up massively in the second half of the season. xG conceded also went up a bit I think though. So even more impressive that after he improved xG a lot in the second half of the season, this season is a massive improvement again.

Dyche is good, probably the best active English manager.

Not brentford. It's Sheffield United.

Really?

The badges are large enough to be legible without being so large their crowd each other too much.

The line is obviously connecting 2 points, one being the badge, and the change in width tells you immediately that's it's a progression from the thin point to the thick one. They're also coloured well so you can immediately tell who is who.

There are lines on the background to help group without even using the axes.

If it takes you more than 30 seconds to read the title, axes and look at the lines then idk what to tell you.

Could it be simpler? Sure. Is it so confusing that it should take someone who has heard about xG longer than a minute to understand? i dont think so.

You're reading it wrong. The graphic is showing increases in both

Spurs are exceeding their xG by quite a bit. But you're also reading this wrong.

More balls but less penetration

Severely low xG conceded doesn't mean "defend" more of the game, on the contrary it means you have a better control of the game. You are essentially allowing fewer opportunities for the opposition to have a glimpse of your side of the pitch. Teams that defend more, often concede a big xG, and if they have good defenders then their xG per shot would be lower. But yeah, pure low xG is all about controlling the game and the ball.