Things just don't impend like they used to!
this post was submitted on 31 May 2025
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Nobody wants to portend anymore.
LOL... you did make me chuckle.
Aren't we 18months until developers get replaced by AI... for like few years now?
Of course "AI" even loosely defined progressed a lot and it is genuinely impressive (even though the actual use case for most hype, i.e. LLM and GenAI, is mostly lazier search, more efficient spam&scam personalized text or impersonation) but exponential is not sustainable. It's a marketing term to keep on fueling the hype.
That's despite so much resources, namely R&D and data centers, being poured in... and yet there is not "GPT5" or anything that most people use on a daily basis for anything "productive" except unreliable summarization or STT (which both had plenty of tools for decades).
So... yeah, it's a slow take off, as expected. shrug
I think we might not be seeing all the advancements as they are made.
Google just showed off AI video with sound. You can use it if you subscribe to thier $250/month plan. That is quite expensive.
But if you have strong enough hardware, you can generate your own without sound.
I think that is a pretty huge advancement in the past year or so.
I think that focus is being put on optimizing these current things and making small improvements to quality.
Just give it a few years and you will not even need your webcam to be on. You could just use an AI avatar that look and sounds just like you running locally on your own computer. You could just type what you want to say or pass through audio. I think the tech to do this kind of stuff is basically there, it just needs to be refined and optimized. Computers in the coming years will offer more and more power to let you run this stuff.
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It has definitely plateaued.
That's only if the exponent is greater than 1.
how do you grow zero exponentially
Pretty much like everyone expected flying cars to have taken off by now (pun intended)
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Computers are still advancing roughly exponentially, as they have been for the last 40 years (Moore's law). AI is being carried with that and still making many occasional gains on top of that. The thing with exponential growth is that it doesn't necessarily need to feel fast. It's always growing at the same rate percentage wise, definitionally.
We once again congratulate software engineers for nullifying 40 years of hardware improvements.
Moore's law is kinda still in effect, depending on your definition of Moore's law. However, Dennard Scaling is not so computer performance isn't advancing like it used to.
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